DBRS Assigns Provisional Rating of AAA to Bank of Nova Scotia Covered Bonds, Series 3

DBRS has today assigned a provisional rating of AAA to the Covered Bonds, Series 3 to be issued under the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) Global Public Sector Covered Bond Programme (the Programme). All covered bonds issued under the Programme (the Covered Bonds) rank pari passu with each other.

The finalization of the rating is contingent upon receipt of final documents conforming to information already received.

The ratings are based on several factors. First, the Covered Bonds are senior unsecured direct deposit obligations of BNS, which is the third largest bank in Canada by assets and rated AA and R-1 (high) by DBRS. Second, in addition to a general recourse to BNS’s assets, the Covered Bonds are supported by a diversified collateral pool of first-lien, prime residential mortgages insured by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (the Cover Pool). CMHC is an agent of Her Majesty in right of Canada and is rated AAA by DBRS. The Cover Pool was approximately $7.2 billion as of November 30, 2010. Third, the Covered Bonds benefit from several structural features, such as a reserve fund, when applicable, and a minimum rating requirement for swap counterparties, servicer and cash manager. And, lastly, upon a default by BNS, the final maturity date on the Covered Bonds can be extended for 12 months or if hard-bullet Covered Bonds are issued, the funding of pre-maturity liquidity is required, which increases the likelihood that the Covered Bonds can be fully repaid.

Despite the above strengths, the Covered Bonds could face the following challenges. First, a weakened housing market in Canada could result in higher defaults and lower recoveries than the assumptions used for credit protection assessment. This risk is significantly mitigated as DBRS considers the credit loss negligible for defaulted mortgages as a result of the mortgage insurance covering principal and interest provided by AAA-rated CMHC. Second, BNS may be required to add mortgages to maintain the Cover Pool, incurring substitution and potential credit deterioration risk. These risks are mitigated by the mortgage insurance provided by CMHC and the ongoing monitoring of the Cover Pool to ensure that the overcollateralization available is commensurate with the AAA rating assigned. Based on the latest review of the Cover Pool as of October 1, 2010, DBRS considers 3% overcollateralization (corresponding to an asset percentage of 97%) as the minimum required for a AAA rating, versus 5% overcollateralization available as of November 30, 2010. Third, there is an inherent liquidity gap between the scheduled repayments of the Covered Bonds and the repayment of underlying mortgage loans over time. This risk is mitigated by the overcollateralized Cover Pool, the buildup of a reserve fund if BNS’s rating falls below A (low) or R-1 (middle) and, upon a default by BNS, the extendible maturity date for 12 months or funding of pre-maturity liquidity for hard-bullet Covered Bonds. Lastly, there is no specific covered bond legislative framework in Canada. This risk is mitigated by the contractual obligations of the transaction parties, supported by the well-developed commercial and bankruptcy laws in Canada, satisfactory opinions provided by legal counsel to BNS and a generally creditor-friendly legal environment in Canada.

BNS had assets of $526.7 billion and $23.7 billion in common equity as at October 31, 2010. It is the servicer of the mortgages in the Cover Pool.

Notes:
All figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

The applicable methodology is Covered Bonds: DBRS’s Rating Approach (to Canadian Issues), which can be found on our website under Methodologies.

There is no rating report for this issuance. More details on the Cover Pool and the Programme are provided in the Monthly Canadian Covered Bond Report, which is available by clicking on the link below or by contacting us at info@dbrs.com.