DBRS Confirms Palladium Securities 1 SA Series 142 Instruments – Republic of Italy Collateral at A (low) (sf)

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed its A (low) (sf) rating on the EUR 77.5 million Series 142 Fixed Rate Instrument due 2024 (the Notes) issued by Palladium Securities 1 S.A. acting in relation to Compartment 142-2014-17 (the Issuer).

The Issuer is a public limited liability company (société anonyme) incorporated under the laws of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. The transaction is a cash flow securitisation collateralised by a sovereign inflation-linked bond issued by the Republic of Italy (the Collateral), ISIN IT0005004426. The noteholders and other transaction counterparties have recourse only to the assets in Compartment 142-2014-17 in accordance with Luxembourg law.

The transaction is a credit-linked note (CLN) in which the Issuer uses an asset swap (the Asset Swap) to transform the payout profile of the collateral security. The noteholders are effectively exposed to the risk that either the Collateral or the Hedging Counterparty default. The transaction documents do not contain any downgrade provisions with respect to the Hedging Counterparty. As such, DBRS regards the rating of the Notes to be linked to those of the Collateral and Hedging Counterparty.

Under the Asset Swap that the Issuer has entered into with Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch (the Hedging Counterparty):
-- The Hedging Counterparty sells the par amount of EUR 77.5 million of the Collateral to the Issuer and receives payment on 10 October 2014 (the Trade Date).
-- The Issuer passes the interest payments received from the Collateral to the Hedging Counterparty as and when they occur.
-- The Hedging Counterparty makes the interest payments as specified in the Asset Swap Agreement to the Issuer. The Interest Payment Dates are the 10th day of October, beginning in 2015 and ending in 2024.
-- The Hedging Counterparty pays a Fixed Rate of 3.0% per annum for the first five years of the transaction. The subsequent payments are set as follows:

1.0% Fixed Rate plus 2.1% Bonus Interest Rate

The Bonus Interest Rate is conditional on the EUR USD exchange rate being below a certain level, as well as certain adjustment events (specified in the Series Instrument) having not been triggered. The DBRS rating does not address the likelihood of the Bonus Interest Rate being paid.

-- At the scheduled maturity, the Hedging Counterparty will receive the Collateral from the Issuer and pay EUR 77.5 million.

DBRS did not address the following:
-- The pricing of the Asset Swap. That is, whether there will be sufficient cash flows from the Collateral to fully compensate the Hedging Counterparty for its obligations. As the Hedging Counterparty is contractually obliged to make the payments as specified under the Asset Swap Agreement, the risk that it defaults is addressed by the DBRS private rating.
-- Cash flow modeling to assess the returns due to the noteholders, as the returns are reliant on the swap counterparty.

The transaction can terminate early on the occurrence of an event of default, mandatory cancellation or cancellation for taxation and other reasons.

Events of default include, but are not limited to, the following:
-- Failure to pay any amount due on the Notes beyond the grace period.
-- The Issuer fails to perform its obligations under the Series Instrument.
-- There is an order by any competent court ordering the dissolution of the Issuer or the Company for whatever reason that includes, but is not limited to, bankruptcy, fraudulent conveyance and merger.

Mandatory cancellation includes:
-- The Collateral becomes repayable other than by the discretion of the relevant Collateral Obligor in accordance with the terms of the Collateral.
-- The Collateral becomes, for whatever reason, capable of being declared due and payable prior to its stated maturity.
-- The Collateral defaults.

Similarly, cancellation for taxation etc. includes:
-- The Issuer becomes required to withhold tax on the next payment date.
-- Termination of the Hedging Agreement

Under the Series Instrument, the amount payable to the noteholders is determined as:

The market value of the Collateral MINUS the Early Termination Unwind Costs.

The Early Termination Unwind Costs are determined as the sum of:
(1) The amount of (a) all costs, taxes, fees, expenses (including loss of funding) etc. incurred by the Hedging Counterparty (positive amount), OR (b) the gain realised by the Hedging Counterparty (negative amount) due to the cancellation of the Asset Swap; and
(2) Legal and other cost incurred by the Issuer, Trustee, Custodian and Hedging Counterparty.

It should be noted that the DBRS rating assigned to this security does not address changes in law or changes in the interpretation of existing laws. Such changes in law or their interpretation could result in the early termination of the transaction and the noteholders could be subjected to a loss on the Notes.

The current rating action is the result of a surveillance annual review of the transaction.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable is “Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit”.

A review of the transaction’s legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. This may be found on www.dbrs.com at http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

The sources of information used for this rating include Palladium Securities 1 SA and other public sources.

DBRS does not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis. DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments; however, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating was of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit the information it receives in connection with the rating process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that information in every instance.

This is the first rating action since the initial rating date.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies are available on www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- A one-notch downgrade to the Collateral rating.
-- A one-notch downgrade to the Hedging Counterparty rating.

DBRS concludes that a hypothetical downgrade to the Collateral rating by one notch, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the transaction to BBB (high) (sf). A hypothetical one-notch downgrade to the Hedging Counterparty rating, ceteris paribus, would not impact the current rating. A scenario combining both the downgrade of the collateral rating and the Hedging Counterparty rating would lead to a downgrade of the Series 142 Instruments to BBB (high) (sf).

For further information on DBRS’s historic default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Administration (ESMA) in a central repository see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU regulations only.

Initial Lead Analyst: Kathy Schroeder
Initial Rating Date: 10 October 2014
Initial Rating Committee Chair: Jerry van Koolbergen

Lead Surveillance Analyst: Alfonso Candelas
Rating Committee Chair: Jerry van Koolbergen

DBRS Ratings Limited
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The rating methodologies and criteria used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

--Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
--Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
--Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how its methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375