DBRS Confirms Ratings on Banco Popular Español Cédulas Hipotecarias, Removes UR-Developing

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed its AA rating on the Cédulas Hipotecarias (CH, Spanish mortgage covered bonds) issued by Banco Popular Español (BPE or the Issuer) and has removed the ratings from Under Review with Developing Implications status.

The rating action follows the finalisation of the review of the credit DBRS gives to sovereign support in its financial institution analysis as a result of the recent developments in European regulation and legislation regarding the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive on 29 September 2015 as well as the publication of the updated “Rating European Covered Bonds” methodology on 8 September 2015.

The rating is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of A (low). BPE is the Issuer and Reference Entity for the programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of Average associated with BPE CH.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of “A” being the lowest CPCA in line with the covered bonds rating.
-- A LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L) of A (high).
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 136% that DBRS gives credit to, being the minimum observed OC level during the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.

The transaction was modelled using the DBRS European Covered Bond Cash Flow Model. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the cover pool (CP).

Everything else being equal, a downgrade of the CBAP by one notch would lead to a downgrade of the LSF-L by two notches, resulting in a downgrade of the covered bonds rating by two notches. In addition, everything else being equal, the CH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA were downgraded below “A”; (2) the sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain were downgraded below A (low); (3) the LSF assessment associated with the programme were downgraded; (4) the quality and consistency of the CP were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; or (5) volatility in the financial markets caused the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

The total outstanding amount of CH is EUR 18.67 billion while the aggregate balance of the mortgages in the CP is EUR 51.23 billion (as of August 2015), resulting in a total OC of 174%. The eligible CP stands at EUR 24.99 billion, resulting in an eligible OC of 34%.

For further information on BPE CH, please refer to the rating report available at www.dbrs.com.

DBRS has assessed the LSF related to BPE CH as Average according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to the DBRS commentaries “Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review” and “DBRS Assigns Legal and Structuring Framework Assessment to Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds Programmes,” available at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable is Rating European Covered Bonds (September 2015). This can be found at http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies. Other methodologies and criteria referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

In DBRS’s opinion, the change under consideration does not require the application of the entire principal methodology; therefore, an asset and cash flow analysis was not conducted. A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to DBRS’s “The Effect of Sovereign Risk on Securitisations in the Euro Area” commentary at http://www.dbrs.com/industries/bucket/id/10036/name/commentaries/.

The sources of information used for this rating include historical default performance data and cover pool stratification tables provided by Grupo Banco Popular that allowed DBRS to further assess the portfolio.

DBRS considers the information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating was of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis; DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments; however, this did not impact the rating analysis.

The last rating action on this programme took place on 2 October 2015, when DBRS assigned ratings to BPE’s new CH issuance.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies are available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS historic default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Administration in a central repository, see http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU regulations only.

Initial Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar
Initial Rating Date: 24 April 2013
Initial Rating Committee Chair: Claire Mezzanotte

Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar
Rating Committee Chair: Quincy Tang

DBRS Ratings Limited
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Registered in England and Wales: No. 7139960

The rating methodologies and criteria used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating European Covered Bonds
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to Small and Medium-Sized European Enterprises (SMEs)
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Unified Interest Rate Model Methodology for European Securitisations

A description of how DBRS methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

DBRS does not audit the information it receives in connection with the rating process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that information in every instance.