DBRS Upgrades to AA (high) Ratings on Banco Popular Español Cédulas Hipotecarias, Removes UR-Positive

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) has today upgraded to AA (high) from AA its ratings on the Cédulas Hipotecarias (CH, Spanish mortgage covered bonds) issued by Banco Popular Español S.A. (BPE or the Issuer) and has removed the ratings from Under Review with Positive Implications.

The rating actions reflect a material update to the methodology DBRS uses to rate and monitor European covered bonds. The Methodology supersedes the previous “Rating European Covered Bonds” methodology published on 15 December 2015.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of “A”, being the Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating of BPE. BPE is the Issuer and Reference Entity for the programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of Average associated with BPE CH.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of A (low), being the lowest CPCA in line with the covered bonds rating.
-- A LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L) of AA (low).
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 137% that DBRS gives credit to, being the minimum observed OC level during the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.

The transaction was modelled using the DBRS European Covered Bond Cash Flow Model. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the cover pool.

Everything else being equal, a downgrade of the CBAP by one notch would lead to a downgrade of the LSF-L by two notches, resulting in a downgrade of the covered bonds rating by two notches. In addition, everything else being equal, the BPE CH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA were downgraded below A (low); (2) the sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain were downgraded below A (low); (3) the LSF assessment associated with the programme were downgraded; (4) the quality and consistency of the cover pool (CP) were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profile of CH and CP moved adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets were to cause the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

The total outstanding amount of CH is EUR 18.63 billion, while the aggregate balance of the mortgages in the cover pool is EUR 49.07 billion (as of January 2015), resulting in a total OC of 161%. The eligible cover pool stands at EUR 24.25 billion, resulting in an eligible OC of 29%.

As of December 2015, the cover pool comprises 300,002 mortgage loans with a weighted-average current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 54%, with a 40% residential, 37% commercial, 15% land, 7% developers and 1% land loans split. It is geographically diversified, with higher concentrations in Madrid (26%), Andalusia (22%) and Catalonia (12%). 1.97% of the pool assets were originated in a currency other than euros. The pool is 67 months seasoned.

The vast majority of the loans in the cover pool (approximately 88%) are floating rate, while 70% of the liabilities pay fixed coupon. As customary in Spanish CH, swaps are not for the benefit of the CH holders. This has been accounted for in the DBRS cash flow modelling. The weighted-average life of the assets is roughly nine years, while that of the covered bonds is roughly five years. This generates an asset-liability mismatch that is partly mitigated by the available OC.

For further information on BPE CH, please refer to the ratings report available on www.dbrs.com.

DBRS has assessed the LSF related to BPE CH as Average according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS’s “Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review” and “DBRS Assigns Legal and Structuring Framework Assessment to Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds Programmes” commentaries, available at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable is “Rating European Covered Bonds” (March 2016). This can be found at http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies. In DBRS’s opinion, the changes under consideration do not require the application of the entire principal methodology. Therefore, an asset analysis and an operational risk review were not conducted. A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action. Other methodologies and criteria referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

For a more detailed discussion of sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to DBRS’s “The Effect of Sovereign Risk on Securitisations in the Euro Area” commentary at http://www.dbrs.com/industries/bucket/id/10036/name/commentaries/.

The sources of information used for these ratings include historical default performance data and cover pool stratification tables provided by Grupo Banco Popular that allowed DBRS to further assess the portfolio.

DBRS considers the information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating was of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis; DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS does not audit the information it receives in connection with the rating process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that information in every instance.

The last rating action on this programme took place on 3 March 2016, when DBRS assigned ratings to BPE CH new issuance.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies are available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS historic default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Administration in a central repository, see http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU regulations only.

Initial Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar
Initial Rating Date: 24 April 2013
Initial Rating Committee Chair: Claire Mezzanotte

Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar
Rating Committee Chair: Quincy Tang

DBRS Ratings Limited
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Registered in England and Wales: No. 7139960

The rating methodologies and criteria used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.
-- Rating European Covered Bonds
-- Rating European Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads Range (Midpoints)
-- Critical Obligations Rating Criteria
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- DBRS Criteria: Support Assessments for Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Unified Interest Rate Model for European Securitisations
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)
-- The Effect of Sovereign Risk on Securitisations in the Euro Area
-- Sovereign Ratings Provide a Benchmark for other DBRS Credit Ratings

A description of how DBRS methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375