DBRS Confirms “A” Ratings of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. Covered Bonds 2 Guaranteed by MPS Covered Bond S.r.l. 2, Removes Under Review with Negative Implications Status

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) confirmed the “A” ratings of the Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite (OBG, the Italian legislative Covered Bonds) issued under the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS or the Issuer) EUR 20,000,000,000 covered bond programme (BMPS OBG2 or the Programme) guaranteed by MPS Covered Bond S.r.l. 2 and removed the Under Review with Negative Implications (UR-Neg.) status.

The action follows the conclusion of the review of the ratings of BMPS. Following the publication of the decree of the Italian Ministry of Finance for the implementation of the burden sharing and precautionary recapitalization of BMPS, DBRS has taken actions on the bank ratings. The Under Review status on the Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of BMPS, which is the Attachment Point for the ratings of BMPS CB2, has now been resolved. For more information on the ratings of BMPS, please see BMPS press release at http://www.dbrs.com/research/315158/dbrs-upgrades-bmps-long-term-senior-debt-to-b-high-stable-trend.html.

As of today, there were 16 series of OBG outstanding under the Programme for a total nominal amount of EUR 9.1 billion.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of BBB (low), being the Long-Term COR of BMPS. BMPS is the Issuer and Reference Entity for the Programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Very Strong” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of BBB (low), being the lowest in line with the assigned LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of A (low).
-- A one-notch uplift for good recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 17.8% to which DBRS gives credit, being the minimum level observed in the last 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.9, and an Issuer-committed Asset Percentage of 86.2%, which translates into an OC commitment of 16.0%.

The transaction was modelled with DBRS’s European Covered Bond Cash Flow Model. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets and interest rate stresses. In accordance with DBRS’s “Rating European Covered Bonds” methodology, no forced asset liquidation has been modelled for this transaction, given the conditional pass-through structure, and DBRS has assumed several prepayment scenarios, ranging between a 1% and 20% Prepayment Rate.

Everything else being equal, a downgrade of the CBAP by one notch would lead to a downgrade of the LSF-L by one notch, resulting in a downgrade of the covered bonds rating by one notch.

In addition, the ratings of the Programme would be downgraded if any of the following were to occur: (1) the quality of the cover pool (CP) and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a one-notch uplift for good recovery prospects, (2) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme were downgraded to Average or (3) the CPCA were downgraded below BBB (low).

Following an Issuer default, the maturities of all OBG are extended to the Long Due for Payment Date, and cash flows from the CP are allocated to all series on a pro rata and pari passu basis and distributed to OBG holders via a modified pass-through mechanism. According to such mechanism, monies are accumulated in an account opened by the guarantor with an eligible institution and paid out on the expected maturity date of each OBG. This implies negative carry and has been taken into account in the cash flow modelling.

The Issuer performs several roles under the Programme documents. According to DBRS’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions,” a CBAP as low as BBB (low) is compatible with the Issuer performing the role of account bank for the Programme in association with the “A” ratings on the OBG.

The OBG holders benefit from a reserve that is sufficient to cover senior costs and interest payments on the OBG for the subsequent six months rolling.

As of June 2017, the total CP balance was EUR 12.14 billion, including EUR 10.38 billion of mortgages and EUR 1.76 billion of cash. As of today, there were EUR 9.1 billion covered bonds outstanding under BMPS OBG2 for a total OC of 33.4%.

As of June 2017, the mortgage CP comprised mortgages secured on residential properties (72.6%), as well as commercial properties (27.4%). The CP comprises 99,844 mortgages with a weighted-average (WA) current loan-to-value ratio of 41.9%. The pool is well seasoned, with a WA seasoning of 7.3 years, and geographically well diversified across Italy, with the top three regions for concentration being Tuscany (25.4%), Lazio (14.2%) and Lombardy (12.2%). As of May 2017, 15.4% of the total cover pool was granted to employees of the Issuer and is therefore subject to additional stresses (see the rating report published on www.dbrs.com).

The CP is composed of floating-rate (69.1%), fixed-rate (23.0%) and optional (currently fixed with the option of switch to floating or vice-versa, 8.0%) mortgages, while all OBG outstanding carry a floating coupon. As there are no hedge agreements in place, OBG holders are exposed to an interest rate mismatch, which has been taken into account in DBRS’s cash flow modelling.

All CP assets and liabilities are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign exchange risk.

As of June 2017, the WA life of the CP, assuming a 0% conditional prepayment rate, was 8.5 years, which is longer than the 2.3-year WA life on the OBG when taking into account the expected maturity. This risk is mitigated by the Long Due for Payment Date, which falls on 31 December 2057.

DBRS has assessed the LSF related to the BMPS OBG2 Programme as Very Strong, according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to the DBRS commentaries “DBRS Assigns LSF Assessment to Italian Covered Bonds” and “Italian Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review,” available at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Rating European Covered Bonds”. This can be found at http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

This is an event-driven rating action, and DBRS has not applied the principal methodology in full.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to DBRS commentary “The Effect of Sovereign Risk on Securitisations in the Euro Area” on: http://www.dbrs.com/industries/bucket/id/10036/name/commentaries/.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include loan-by-loan data, vintage data and stratification tables provided by the Issuer and payments reports provided by Securitisation Services. DBRS considers the information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis. At the time of initial rating, DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 8 August 2017, when DBRS confirmed the “A” ratings on BMPS CB2, and maintained the Under Review with Negative implications status following a full review of the Programme.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Alessandra Maggiora, Senior Financial Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Vito Natale, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 3 September 2013

DBRS Ratings Limited
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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating European Covered Bonds
-- Rating European Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads Range (Midpoints)
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Critical Obligations Rating Criteria
-- DBRS Criteria: Support Assessments for Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs
-- Unified Interest Rate Model Methodology for European Securitisations
-- The Effect of Sovereign Risk on Securitisations in the Euro Area

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.