DBRS Assigns AAA Rating to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Covered Bonds New Issuance

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) assigned a rating of AAA to cédula ES0413211923 issued by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA or the Issuer) under the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Covered Bonds (Cédulas Hipotecarias - Mortgages) programme (BBVA CH or the Programme). The cédula is a EUR 3,000 million floating-rate security indexed to 12-month Euribor + 0.10%, maturing in January 2028.

At the same time, DBRS confirmed the AAA ratings of the outstanding cédulas hipotecarias (CH, the Spanish mortgage covered bonds) rated by DBRS and discontinued the rating on cédula ES0413211782 following the full repayment of the bond, which matured on 5 December 2017.

There are 44 series of CH outstanding under the Programme, with a nominal amount of EUR 23.2 billion.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A CBAP of A (high), which is the Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of BBVA. BBVA is the Issuer of and Reference Entity for the Programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of Average associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of AA (low), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of AA.
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 150% to which DBRS gives credit, which is the minimum level observed in the last 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.

The transaction was analysed with the DBRS European Covered Bond Cash Flow engine. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the cover pool (CP).

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the covered bonds rating. In addition, all else unchanged, the CH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA was downgraded below AA (low); (2) the sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain was downgraded below A (low); (3) the LSF assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded; (4) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profile of the CH and CP moved adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets caused the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

The total outstanding amount of CH was EUR 23.2 billion (of which DBRS rates eight bonds publicly with an outstanding balance of EUR 10.4 billion) while the aggregate balance of the mortgages in the cover pool at 30 September 2017 was EUR 75.9 billion, resulting in a total OC of 228%. The eligible cover pool stood at EUR 46.9 billion, resulting in an eligible OC of 102%.

As of September 2017, the CP comprised 937,185 mortgage loans, with a weighted-average (WA) current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 70.9% and is split between 84.7% residential, 8.4% commercial and 6.9% developers. Geographically, the pool is mainly distributed in Catalonia (38.4% by outstanding balance), as well as Madrid (15.2%) and Andalusia (13.1%). The pool is 102 months seasoned.

As is customary in the Spanish market, the CH holders do not receive the benefit of any swap contract to hedge the mismatches between the interest yield by the CP (93.0% floating rate linked to different indexes and resets) and the interest due on the CH (67.5% paying fixed and 32.5% floating rate linked to different indexes and resets). The only foreign-currency CH amounts to a nominal of NOK 1.1 billion, equivalent to roughly EUR 116.9 million at the spot rate as of 30 September 2017 (0.5% of the aggregate CH outstanding). In DBRS’s view this exposure is mitigated by the OC available.

The DBRS-calculated weighted-average life of the assets is roughly 12 years while that of the covered bonds is six years. This generates an asset-liability mismatch that is mitigated by the available OC.

DBRS has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as Average according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS’s commentaries “DBRS Assigns Legal and Structuring Framework Assessment to Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds Programmes” and “Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review”, both available at www.dbrs.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Rating European Covered Bonds”.

In DBRS’s opinion, the change(s) under consideration do not require the application of the entire principal methodology. Therefore, DBRS focused on the cash flow analysis. A review of the transaction legal documents was limited to the documentation pertaining to the issuance of cédula ES0413211923. All the other documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: http://dbrs.com/research/319564/rating-sovereign-governments.pdf

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports, historical default performance data and CP stratification tables provided by the Issuer.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 31 July 2017, when DBRS upgraded the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Covered Bonds to AAA.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (“ESMA”) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Roger Bickert, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Gareth Levington, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 20 January 2016

DBRS Ratings Limited
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Registered in England and Wales: No. 7139960

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies

-- Rating European Covered Bonds
-- Rating European Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology
-- European RMBS Insight: Spanish Addendum
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs
-- Rating Sovereign Governments

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.