DBRS Confirms Banco BPI S.A. Covered Bonds (Obrigações Hipotecárias - Mortgages) at AA (low)

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) confirmed its AA (low) ratings on the Obrigações Hipotecárias (OH; the Portuguese legislative Covered Bonds) issued under the Banco BPI S.A. (BPI or the Issuer) Covered Bond Programme (the Programme). The confirmation follows the completion of a full review of the Programme.

There are ten series of OH outstanding under the Programme totalling a nominal amount of EUR 6.5 billion.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) reflective of the likelihood that the source of payments will switch from the Reference Entity (RE) to the cover pool (CP). BPI is the Issuer of and RE for the Programme. BPI was not assigned a Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating, nor does DBRS consider Portugal as a jurisdiction in which covered bonds (CBs) are a particularly important financing tool.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Average” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of BBB (low), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of “A”.
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 14.1% to which DBRS gives credit, which is the minimum level observed in the last 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.

The transaction was analysed with the DBRS European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the CP.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the CB rating.

In addition, all else unchanged, the OH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA was downgraded to below BBB (low); (2) the sovereign rating of the Republic of Portugal was downgraded to below BBB (low); (3) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded; (4) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profile of the OH and CP moved adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets caused the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

The aggregated outstanding balance of the CP backing BPI’s OH was EUR 7.59 billion as of 31 December 2018, while the total amount of liabilities outstanding is EUR 6.5 billion, yielding a current OC ratio of 16.8%. The OC level to which DBRS gives credit is 14.1%, after applying a scaling factor of 0.85 to the minimum level of OC observed during the last 12 months.

As at 30 December 2018, the CP assets comprised EUR 7.57 billion of outstanding mortgage credits (99.7% of the CP) and EUR 21.6 million of other assets (0.3% of the CP). The mortgage CP has a weighted-average (WA) current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 56.3%, a WA seasoning of 109 months and a WA remaining time to maturity of 302 months. The CP is located mainly in Lisbon (41.5% by outstanding balance), Northern Portugal (24.2%) and Central Portugal (18.5%).

The vast majority of the loans in the CP (approximately 96%) are floating rate, indexed to different bases and reset at different times, while Series 22 is fixed rate and the remaining outstanding OH (roughly 92%) linked to different Euribor rates with quarterly or semi-annual resets. The interest rate mismatch is mitigated by swap agreements; however, the swap documentation is not consistent with DBRS’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions”. As such, no credit was given to swaps in DBRS’s analysis, and the interest rate mismatch has been taken into account in DBRS’s analysis.

The DBRS-calculated WA life of the mortgage assets is roughly 14 years based on a 0% prepayment rate, which is longer than the 4.4 years of WA life on the CB, not accounting for any maturity extension. This risk is mitigated by the extended maturity date, which falls one year after the maturity date, and by the OC in place.

All CP assets and CB are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign-exchange risk.

DBRS has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Average” according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS’s commentaries, “DBRS Assigns LSF Assessment to Portuguese Covered Bonds” and “Portuguese Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review,” both available at www.dbrs.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: “Rating European Covered Bonds”.

DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the surveillance section of the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/333487/rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports, loan-by-loan data on the CP and historical default performance data provided by the Issuer.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 22 March 2019, when DBRS assigned a AA (low) rating to Series 22 and discontinued its rating on Series 10.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Roger Bickert, Vice President
Rating Committee Gareth Levington, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 1 April 2015

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating European Covered Bonds
-- Rating European Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating Sovereign Governments

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.