DBRS Confirms Ratings of Aragorn NPL 2018 S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) confirms the following ratings of the Class A and Class B notes issued by Aragorn NPL 2018 S.r.l. (the Issuer):

-- Class A at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class B at CCC (sf)

The notes were backed by a EUR 1.670 billion portfolio by gross book value (GBV) consisting of unsecured and secured non-performing loans originated by Credito Valtellinese S.p.A. and Credito Siciliano S.p.A. (the Originators). The majority of loans in the portfolio defaulted between 2014 and 2017 and are in various stages of resolution. The receivables are serviced by Cerved S.p.A. and Credito Fondiario S.p.A. (Credito Fondiario). Credito Fondiario also operates as the Master Servicer in the transaction. As of April 2019, the portfolio’s GBV totalled EUR 1.604 billion.

At issuance, approximately 82% of the pool by GBV was secured and 73% of the pool by GBV benefitted from a first-ranking lien. Almost a year later, as of April 2019, 81% of the portfolio by GBV was secured and 73% of the portfolio by GBV benefitted from a first-ranking lien. In its analysis, DBRS assumed that all loans are worked out through an auction process, which generally has the longest resolution timeline.

The secured loans in the portfolio are backed by properties distributed across Italy, with concentrations in the regions of Lombardy, Sicily, Lazio and Marche. According to the latest info provided by the Master Servicer, the portfolio is still homogeneously distributed across Italy with concentrations in Lombardy (46% by open market value or OMV), Sicily (21% by OMV) and Lazio (9% by OMV). The main asset type in the portfolio remains to be residential (44% by OMV).

Interest on the Class B notes, which represent mezzanine debt, may be repaid prior to the principal of the Class A notes unless certain performance related triggers are breached. As per the latest Investor Report from January 2019, the interest on Class B Subordination Event has occurred and the amount of unpaid interest on the Class B notes is EUR 2.9 million.

The securitisation includes the possibility to implement a ReoCo structure.

The ratings are based on DBRS’s analysis of the projected recoveries of the underlying collateral, the historical performance and expertise of the Special Servicers, the availability of liquidity to fund interest shortfalls and special-purpose vehicle expenses, the cap agreement and the transaction’s legal and structural features. DBRS’s BBB (low) (sf) and CCC (sf) rating stresses assume haircuts of approximately 17.7% and 0.0% respectively to the Special Servicers’ business plan for the portfolio

DBRS analysed the transaction structure using Intex Deal Maker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is “Rating European Non-Performing Loan Securitisations”.

DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: http://dbrs.com/research/319564/rating-sovereign-governments.pdf.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include the Originators and the Special Servicers.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first rating action since the Initial Rating Date.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to determine the rating (the “Base Case”):

-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 5%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to BB (sf).
-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to B (sf).
-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 5%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to below CCC (sf).
-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to below CCC (sf).

For further information on DBRS historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Mattia Pauciullo, Senior Financial Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Quincy Tang, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 14 June 2018

DBRS Ratings Limited
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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating European Non-Performing Loans Securitisations
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- European CMBS Rating and Surveillance Methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.