DBRS Confirms Rating on Valconca SPV S.r.l. (RMBS)

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS) confirmed its rating on the Class A Notes issued by Valconca SPV S.r.l. (the Issuer) at A (sf).

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal by the legal maturity date.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults and losses as of the April 2019 payment date
-- Updated probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and expected loss assumptions for the remaining collateral pool
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at the A (sf) level.

Valconca SPV S.r.l. (RMBS) is a securitisation of first-ranking Italian residential mortgage loans originated by Banca Popolare Valconca S.p.A. (Banca Valconca) to borrowers in Italy. The transaction closed in June 2018, when the special-purpose vehicle (SPV) issued one class of floating-rate senior notes and one class of additional return junior notes, namely the Class A Notes and Class J Notes.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of April 2019, loans that were two to three months in arrears represented 0.52% of the outstanding portfolio balance. The 90+ delinquency ratio was 0.74% and the cumulative gross default ratio stood at 0.75%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
DBRS conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 12.9% and 29.6%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the April 2019 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 16.7%, up from 15.1% at the DBRS initial rating. The transaction benefits from an amortising Cash Reserve of EUR 1.8 million, equal to 2.0% of the outstanding balance of the Class A Notes. It is available to cover senior fees, expenses and any interest shortfall on the Class A Notes.

The Account Bank is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Milan branch. Based on the private ratings of the Account Bank, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants, DBRS considers the risk arising from the exposure to the Account Bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

The transaction structure was analysed in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology”.

DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: http://dbrs.com/research/333487/rating-sovereign-governments.pdf.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A., servicer reports provided by Banca Valconca and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first rating action on this transaction since the initial rating date on 28 June 2018, when DBRS assigned its A (sf) rating to the Class A Notes.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Ettore Grassini.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 12.9% and 29.6%, respectively.

-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BB (low) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BB (low) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf).
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf).

For further information on DBRS historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and US regulations only.
Lead Analyst: Ettore Grassini, Financial Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 28 June 2018

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.