DBRS Confirms Ratings on Brisca Securitisation S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) confirmed the following ratings on the Class A notes and Class B notes issued by Brisca Securitisation S.r.l:

-- Class A notes at BBB (high) (sf)
-- Class B notes at B (low) (sf)

The notes were backed by a EUR 961 million portfolio by gross book value (GBV) consisting of secured and unsecured non-performing loans (NPLs) originated by Banca Carige S.p.A. (Carige), Banca Cesare Ponti S.p.A. (BCP) and Banca del Monte di Lucca S.p.A. (BML), together Gruppo Banca Carige (the Originator). The majority of loans in the portfolio defaulted between 2011 and 2014 and are in various stages of resolution. The receivables are serviced by Prelios Credit Servicing S.p.A. (Prelios or the Servicer). A BackUp Servicer, Securitisation Services S.p.A., was appointed and will act as a servicer in case of termination of the appointment of Prelios.

At issuance, approximately 67% of the pool by GBV was secured and 90% of the secured loans by GBV benefitted from a first-ranking lien. According to the latest information provided by the Servicer in June 2019, the percentage of secured GBV of the portfolio remains almost equal at 65%, of which 82% benefits from a first rank lien. At closing, the secured collateral was highly concentrated in the northern regions of Italy (68% of secured GBV as of issuance), particularly in Liguria (33% of secured GBV as of issuance), Lombardy (14% of secured GBV as of issuance) and Piedmont (10% of secured GBV as of issuance), and continues to be mainly concentrated in the same regions as at the cut-off date. In its analysis, DBRS assumed that all loans are worked out through an auction process, which generally has the longest resolution timeline.

According to the most recent semi-annual investor report, the actual cumulative collections totalled EUR 113.1 million for the first two years after closing. The initial business plan (BP) provided by the Servicer, as detailed in the servicing report, assumed cumulative gross disposition proceeds (GDP) of EUR 91.3 million during the relevant collection period, which is 19% lower than the amount collected so far. Therefore, the transaction is overperforming by an amount of roughly EUR 21.8 million as compared with the Servicer’s initial business plan. In 2019, Prelios has reviewed the original business plan, by reducing the initial GDP from EUR 393.0 million to EUR 367.3 million (-6.5%, - EUR 25.7 million reduction). The BP provided in 2019 assumed cumulative GDP of EUR 113.3 million as per the investor report as of June 2019, which is 0.1% higher than the actual amount collected so far; therefore, the transaction is slightly underperforming for an amount equal to EUR 0.1 million as compared with the Servicer´s BP 2019 expectations. Prelios justified such discrepancy highlighting four main causes: (1) no bids at auction (2) asset-related critical issues (technical, urbanistic, status of maintenance) (3) potential indemnity (4) lower collections because of accelerated recovery (extra-judicial approach). Prelios mentioned that such discrepancy might reduce in the future. DBRS will continue to keep in touch with Prelios to monitor the Servicer´s performance.

At issuance, DBRS estimated a GDP for the same two-year period of EUR 83.5 million at a BBB (high) (sf) stressed scenario, which is EUR 29.6 million lower as compared with the initial business plan estimate provided by the Servicer during the same period (-35.44%). Furthermore, at a B (low) (sf) stressed scenario, DBRS estimated a GDP for the same two-year period of EUR 89.1 million, which is EUR 24.0 million lower (-26.90%) than the actual cumulative collections.

The coupon on the Class B notes, which represent the mezzanine debt, may be repaid prior to principal of the Class A notes unless certain performance-related triggers are breached. As per the latest investor report from July 2017, no subordination events have occurred.

The ratings are based on DBRS’s analysis of the projected recoveries of the underlying collateral, the historical performance and expertise of the Servicer, Prelios, the availability of liquidity to fund interest shortfalls and special-purpose vehicle expenses, the cap agreement with Banca IMI and the transaction’s legal and structural features.

Both the DBRS timing and value stresses are based on the historical repossessions data of the Servicer, Prelios. DBRS’s BBB (high) (sf) and B (low) (sf) ratings assume a haircut of 18.7% and of 5.5%, respectively, to Prelios’s initial business plan for the portfolio.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology”.

DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: http://dbrs.com/research/ 333487 /rating-sovereign-governments.pdf.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include the Servicer and the BackUp Servicer.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings were of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with
the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 5 July 2018, when DBRS confirmed the ratings on Class A and Class B Notes issued by Brisca Securitisation S.r.l.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Alessio Pignataro.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies are available on www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS considered the following stress scenarios, as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- Recovery Rates Used: Cumulative Base Case Recovery Amount of EUR 319.7 million at the BBB (high) stress level, a 5% and 10% decrease of the Cumulative Base Case Recovery Rate.
-- Recovery Rates Used: Cumulative Base Case Recovery Amount of EUR 371.4 million at the B (low) stress level, a 5% and 10% decrease of the Cumulative Base Case Recovery Rate.

-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 5%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to BB (high) (sf).
-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A Notes to BB (sf).
-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 5%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B Notes to CCC (sf).
-- DBRS concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would each lead to a downgrade of the transaction to CCC (sf) for the Class B Notes.

For further information on DBRS historic default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Alessio Pignataro, Senior Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Christian Aufsatz, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 5 June 2017

DBRS Ratings Limited
20 Fenchurch Street, 31st Floor, London EC3M 3BY United Kingdom
Registered in England and Wales: No. 7139960

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating European Non-Performing Loans Securitisations
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- European CMBS Rating and Surveillance Methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.