DBRS: No-Deal Brexit Heightens Risks for the Island of Ireland

DBRS has released a commentary on the heightened risks to the Republic of Ireland from a no-deal Brexit. The main points are highlighted below:

--Beyond economic risks, DBRS considers the security and political risks to Ireland in a no-deal Brexit scenario to be of significant consequence.
--A no-deal Brexit poses a risk to the Belfast Agreement that could possibly reawaken security concerns, including the resumption of sectarian violence.
--The current political impasses between the U.K., the EU, and within Northern Ireland are further complicated in a no-deal Brexit scenario.
--The Belfast Agreement spells out the process for conducting a poll on Irish unification, but in practice the path to a referendum is unclear.
--How well the Republic of Ireland navigates Brexit difficulties could have credit implications for the Sovereign.

“Beyond the much discussed risks to the Irish economy from Brexit, we are giving careful attention to the non-economic challenges to Ireland from a no-deal Brexit,” said Jason Graffam, Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings. “A return of border checks and constraints on the free flow of people and goods between the two parts of Ireland, likely necessary in a no-deal Brexit, could undermine the security gains made in Northern Ireland since the signing of the Belfast Agreement.”

This press release titled “DBRS: No-Deal Brexit Heightens Risks for the Emerald Isle” is available at www.dbrs.com.

For more information on Ireland and the UK, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.

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