DBRS Morningstar Confirms Grand Renewable Solar LP at BBB with a Stable Trend

DBRS Limited (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed Grand Renewable Solar LP’s (ProjectCo) Issuer Rating and 3.926% Series 1A-2016 Senior Secured Notes and 3.926% Series 1B-2016 Senior Secured Notes (collectively, the Notes) ratings at BBB. All trends are Stable. The pari passu Notes, with an outstanding balance of approximately $508.6 million, will fully amortize by the January 31, 2035, maturity date. The rating confirmations reflect ProjectCo’s relatively stable performance and operating expense profile over the past few years. DBRS Morningstar also notes that Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) will not likely have any material impact on ProjectCo’s performance because of the strong contractual arrangements and simple operation.

ProjectCo, a special-purpose vehicle, owns and operates a 100-megawatt alternating-current ground-mounted solar photovoltaic (PV) generation facility. It also owns a 50% interest in the associated 20-kilometre transmission facilities connecting the PV facility to Hydro One Networks Inc.’s electricity grid (collectively, the Project or the Facility). ProjectCo sells all generated electricity to the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO; rated A (high) with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar) under a 20-year fixed-price power purchase agreement (PPA) until March 30, 2035.

For the 12-month periods ended December 31, 2019, and March 31, 2020, the DBRS Morningstar-adjusted debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs) were 1.39 times (x) and 1.37x, respectively. The Project's 12-month actual generation was represented by 97.9% to 98.7% of the P90 level (the rating case) or 92.3% to 93.2% of the P50 level.

The conservative rating case has provided cushion for the subpar generation driven by the low insolation, while maintaining DSCRs supportive of the current rating. DBRS Morningstar also notes that the Facility (1) has maintained a high availability of 99% and (2) conducted annual site testing and observed no material degradation in the panel’s performance. To date, the IESO has sufficiently compensated for the curtailment loss under the PPA.

DBRS Morningstar expects the trends on the ratings to remain stable for the next 12 months. However, lower DSCRs than the BBB level on a consistent basis could cause a negative rating action, while a positive rating action is unlikely in the near to medium term.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

PXX means exceedance probabilities. A P50-P90-P99 value describes estimated minimum electricity generation with a probability of 50%, 90%, or 99% in any given year (P50, one-year P90, and one-year P99).

The principal methodology is Rating Solar Power Projects (August 21, 2019), which can be found on dbrsmorningstar.com under Methodologies & Criteria.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

The related regulatory disclosures pursuant to the National Instrument 25-101 Designated Rating Organizations are hereby incorporated by reference and can be found by clicking on the link under Related Documents or by contacting us at [email protected].

The rated entity or its related entities did participate in the rating process for this rating action. DBRS Morningstar had access to the accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this rating action.

Generally, the conditions that lead to the assignment of a Negative or Positive trend are resolved within a 12-month period. DBRS Morningstar trends and ratings are under regular surveillance.

DBRS Morningstar will publish a full report shortly that will provide additional analytical detail on this rating action. If you are interested in receiving this report, contact us at [email protected].

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

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