DBRS Morningstar Upgrades Rating on Alba 8 SPV S.r.l. and Removes UR-Pos. Status

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded the rating on the Class C Notes issued by Alba 8 SPV S.r.l. (the Issuer) to AAA (sf) from A (sf) and removed the Under Review with Positive Implications (UR-Pos) status.

The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

The upgrade follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the July 2020 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
DBRS Morningstar placed the rating on the Class C Notes UR-Pos on 9 April 2020, in order to assess if the transactions’ performance trend could be sustainable amid the coronavirus pandemic.

For information on these rating actions, please refer to the following press releases: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359495/dbrs-morningstar-places-ratings-on-alba-8-spv-srl-under-review-with-positive-implications and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/363582/dbrs-morningstar-maintains-ratings-on-alba-8-spv-srl-under-review-with-positive-implications.

Alba 8 SPV S.r.l. is a securitisation of lease receivables granted by Alba Leasing S.p.A. to corporates, small businesses, and individual enterprises with their registered offices in Italy. The pool comprises real estate, equipment, vehicle, and naval-air-rail lease receivables. The transaction closed in June 2016, when the special-purpose vehicle issued two senior classes of floating-rate notes (the Class A1 and Class A2 Notes), two mezzanine classes of floating-rate notes (the Class B and Class C Notes), and one class of junior notes (the Class J Notes). The Class A1 and Class A2 Notes were fully redeemed on the January 2018 and July 2019 payment dates, respectively, while the Class B Notes on the July 2020 payment date.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

As of the June 2020 cut-off date, loans that were two- to three-months in arrears represented 1.2% of the outstanding portfolio balance, while the 90+ delinquency ratio was at 0.2%. The gross cumulative default ratio stood at 3.0% of the initial portfolio balance, stable over the last few months.
PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS

DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 16.9% and 85.6%, respectively, taking into account coronavirus-related adjustments. These adjustments were applied to loans belonging to certain industry sectors, please refer to the below related section for more information.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT

Overcollateralisation of the outstanding collateral portfolio provides credit enhancement. As of the July 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class C Notes was 86.0%, up from 71.6% as of the January 2020 payment date.

The transaction structure benefits from an amortising cash reserve (the Debt Service Reserve), which provides liquidity support and is available to cover shortfalls on senior fees, expenses, and interest on the Class C Notes (only prior to a Class C Notes subordination event, which materialises if the gross cumulative default ratio, currently 3.0%, exceeds 10.0%) . The reserve is currently at its floor level of EUR 4.1 million.

Citibank NA, Milan Branch acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the private rating of the account bank, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class C Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many ABS and Structured Credit transactions, some meaningfully. The rating is based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the COVID-19.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for obligors in certain industries based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions of the coronavirus. In addition, DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio. Reported payment holidays were also considered in the cash flow analysis. As of 31 August 2020, around 45.7% of the current portfolio balance benefitted from a COVID-19 related payment moratorium.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/ global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May and on 18 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published commentaries outlining how the coronavirus is likely to affect the DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS and Structured Credit transactions, respectively, in Europe. For more details please see:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361098/european-structured-credit-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect, and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:

All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include servicer reports and additional information provided by Alba Leasing S.p.A., investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A. and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.
DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

On 10 August 2020, DBRS Morningstar discontinued its AA (high) (sf) rating on the Class B Notes, following their payment in full. Prior to that, the last rating actions on this transaction took place on 9 April and 8 July 2020, when DBRS Morningstar placed and maintained, respectively, UR-Pos. the AA (high) (sf) and A (sf) ratings on the Class B and Class C Notes .

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 16.9% and 85.6%, respectively.

-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class C Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (low) (sf).

Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Daniele Canestrari, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 20 June 2016

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main – Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (3 September 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366294/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit (21 July 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364310/rating-clos-and-cdos-of-large-corporate-credit
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (21 July 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364305/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].