DBRS Morningstar Assigns Provisional Ratings to Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2020-A

DBRS Limited (DBRS Morningstar) assigned the following provisional ratings to the Asset-Backed Notes, Series 2020-A to be issued by Ford Auto Securitization Trust (FAST) 2020-A:

-- AAA (sf) to the Asset-Backed Notes, Series 2020-A, Class A-1 (the Class A-1 Notes)
-- AAA (sf) to the Asset-Backed Notes, Series 2020-A, Class A-2 (the Class A-2 Notes)
-- AAA (sf) to the Asset-Backed Notes, Series 2020-A, Class A-3 (the Class A-3 Notes; collectively with the Class A-1 Notes and the Class A-2 Notes, the Class A Notes)
-- AA (sf) to the Asset-Backed Notes, Series 2020-A, Class B (the Class B Notes) and
-- A (sf) to the Asset-Backed Notes, Series 2020-A, Class C (the Class C Notes; collectively with the Class A Notes and Class B Notes, the Notes)

DBRS Morningstar considered additional analyses and, where appropriate, additional adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). DBRS Morningstar initially published macroeconomic scenarios on April 16, 2020. The scenarios were updated on September 10, 2020, and reflect the updated scenarios in DBRS Morningstar’s rating analysis. For details, see https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366543. DBRS Morningstar’s analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced commentary.

The Notes will be supported by a portfolio of prime retail auto loan contracts originated by Ford Credit Canada Company (Ford Credit Canada or the Seller; rated BB (high) with a Negative trend and R-4 with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar) and secured by new and used light trucks (including sport-utility vehicles) and passenger cars (the Portfolio of Assets).

Repayment of the Notes will be made from collections from the Portfolio of Assets, which include scheduled monthly and biweekly loan payments, prepayments, and proceeds from vehicle sales in the case of defaults. Principal repayment on the Notes will be sequential in the order of the Class A-1 Notes, the Class A-2 Notes, the Class A-3 Notes, the Class B Notes, and the Class C Notes. The provisional ratings are based on the full repayment of the Notes by their respective Final Scheduled Payment Dates.

The provisional ratings incorporate the following considerations:

(1) Credit Enhancement (CE)—Amount
The high level of CE provided by subordination (5.00% to the Class A Notes and 2.00% to the Class B Notes of the Initial Adjusted Pool Balance); OC (initially $17,295.45 on the Closing Date; builds to 2.00% of the Initial Adjusted Pool Balance plus the amount that 1.50% of the current Pool Balance exceeds the original Cash Reserve Account balance by) as principal on the Notes is repaid); a Cash Reserve Account (1.00% of the Initial Adjusted Pool Balance); and estimated annual excess spread of approximately 3.77%, net of indicative cost of funds and the Replacement Servicer Fee of 1.00% (plus applicable taxes), which will be available to offset collection shortfalls on a monthly basis.

(2) Credit Enhancement—Structure (Nonamortizing)
The level of subordination, OC (after it reaches the floor of 2.00%), and the Cash Reserve Account remain at their initial levels even as principal on the Notes is repaid. This deleveraging structure results in increased CE as the Portfolio of Receivables amortizes.

(3) Transaction Structure
The transaction structure ensures that excess collections are not released to the Seller until the Targeted OC Amount is met. The Targeted OC Amount is calculated as the sum of the yield supplement overcollateralization amount (YSOA) on each payment date, 2.00% of the Initial Adjusted Pool Balance, and the excess of 1.50% of the current pool balance over 1.00% of the Initial Adjusted Pool Balance. The YSOA schedule is fixed as of the Cut-Off Date and is equal to the aggregate excess of (A) the present value of all payments on each receivable discounted at the annual percentage rate of each contract over (B) the present value of all payments on each receivable discounted at the Discount Rate of 6.40%. It was set based on an amortization of the portfolio under a zero-prepayment and no-loss scenario and under which additional yield from discounting the Receivables at the Discount Rate would result in initial estimated excess spread of approximately 3.77%. As some prepayments are likely to occur, increasing the rate of amortization while the YSOA schedule remains fixed, DBRS Morningstar expects that the yield generated from the OC would increase against the Notes in such a scenario.

(4) Obligor Profile
The obligors of the underlying loan contracts represent high-credit-quality customers as the weighted-average FICO score is 768. Obligors with no FICO score and commercial obligors constitute 17.4% of the pool balance while obligors with a FICO score below 600 constitute 3.3% of the pool balance. Approximately 62.9% of the pool has a FICO score greater than or equal to 700, and 85.3% of the pool is in the top two credit tiers. The strong credit profile is also supported by the low and consistent historical credit losses and delinquency levels of prior FAST transactions and the Seller’s owned and managed portfolio.

(5) Experienced Seller/Servicer
Ford Credit Canada has significant experience in administrating, servicing, and managing securitizations, as demonstrated by its long track record of FAST transactions since 2009, all of which performed or are performing within expectations. As a subsidiary of Ford Motor Credit Company (FMCC), Ford Credit Canada benefits from its parent’s strong franchise and global presence, allowing it to leverage FMCC’s experience and expertise to ensure sound and consistent underwriting standards and efficient servicing operations.

DBRS Morningstar’s cash flow analysis includes a conservative base-case cumulative net loss estimate. Available CE is able to withstand the stresses at levels commensurate with the assigned ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology is Rating Canadian Auto Retail Loan and Lease Securitizations (October 11, 2019), which can be found on dbrsmorningstar.com under Methodologies & Criteria.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

The related regulatory disclosures pursuant to the National Instrument 25-101 Designated Rating Organizations are hereby incorporated by reference and can be found by clicking on the link under Related Documents or by contacting us at [email protected].

The rated entity or its related entities did participate in the rating process for this rating action. DBRS Morningstar had access to the accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this rating action.

Please see the related appendix for additional information regarding the sensitivity of assumptions used in the rating process.

The full report providing additional analytical detail is available by clicking on the link under Related Documents below or by contacting us at [email protected].

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

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