Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings of AutoNoria Spain 2019, FT

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December 17, 2020

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the following ratings on the bonds (together, the Rated Notes) issued by Autonoria Spain 2019, FT (the Issuer):

-- Class A Notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes at AA (sf)
-- Class C Notes at A (sf)
-- Class D Notes at BBB (sf)
-- Class E Notes at BB (sf)
-- Class F Notes at B (low) (sf)
-- Class G Notes at C (sf)

The rating of the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of scheduled interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date. The ratings of the Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, Class F, and Class G Notes address the ultimate payment (then timely as most-senior class) of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date in December 2035.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
--The portfolio performance, in terms of level of delinquencies and losses, as of the October 2020 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- The current levels of credit enhancement available to the Rated Notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
-- No Purchase Termination Events have occurred.

The Issuer is a securitisation backed by a portfolio of retail auto loan receivables associated with a portfolio of new and used vehicle loans originated by Banco Cetelem S.A.U. (Banco Cetelem, the Seller and Servicer) to Spanish borrowers. The transaction included a one-year revolving period, which ends on the payment date in December 2020.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the October 2020 payment date, loans that were one- to two-month delinquent represented 0.2% of the portfolio balance while loans that were two- to three-month and loans more than three-month delinquent both represented 0.1% of the portfolio balance. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.1% of which 1.3% has been recovered so far.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan review of the remaining pool of receivables and maintained its base case PD assumptions at 4.8% and updated its base case LGD assumptions to 85.5%. The assumptions are based on the worst-case portfolio composition and include coronavirus-related adjustments.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior class of notes provides credit enhancement to the Rated Notes. As of the October 2020 payment date, credit enhancements to the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, Class F, and Class G Notes have remained unchanged since closing at 21.0%, 18.0%, 12.5%, 7.0%, 5.0%, 2.5%, and 0%, respectively, because of the revolving period. In addition, credit enhancement will remain stable once the transaction starts amortising because of the pro rata amortisation of the Notes. If a Sequential Redemption Event is triggered, the principal repayment of the Notes will become sequential and nonreversible.

The structure benefits from a liquidity reserve that was funded at closing and is available to cover interest deficiencies on the Rated Notes if principal collections are not sufficient to cover shortfalls. The liquidity reserve is currently at its target of EUR 9.3 million. The target amount may be maintained through the transaction’s priority of payments during the revolving period and normal redemption period, up to the earlier of the full repayment of the Class D Notes or the commencement of the accelerated amortisation period. The target amount after the Class D Notes have been redeemed is zero.

BNP Paribas Securities Services acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar private rating of BNP Paribas Securities Services, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the Rated Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Banco Cetelem S.A.U. acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction, which in turn is guaranteed by BNP Paribas Personal Finance. DBRS Morningstar's private rating of BNP Paribas Personal Finance is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio. As of the October 2020 payment date, 0.03% of the outstanding balance benefitted from a coronavirus-related moratorium.
On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were updated on 2 December 2020. For more details please see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370672/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-december-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted. Due to the inclusion of a revolving period in the transaction, the analysis continues to be based on the worst-case replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by BNP PARIBAS Personal Finance, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 18 December 2019, when DBRS Morningstar finalised its provisional ratings on the Rated Notes.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Petter Wettestad.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 4.8% and 85.5%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the ratings of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the ratings of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the ratings of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)

Class E Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)

Class F Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)

-- The Class G Notes’ rating would not be affected by a hypothetical change in either the PD or the LGD.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Petter Wettestad, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 19 November 2019

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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