DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Notes Issued by Loan Invest NV/SA. Compartment SME Loan Invest 2020

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AA (high) (sf) rating on the Notes issued by Loan Invest NV/SA. Compartment SME Loan Invest 2020 (the Issuer).

The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in July 2054.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- The portfolio performance, in terms of level of delinquencies and defaults, as of the May 2021 payment date;
-- The one-year base case probability of default (PD) and default and recovery rates on the outstanding receivables;
-- The credit enhancement available to the Notes to cover the expected losses at the AA (high) (sf) rating level; and
-- The current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The transaction is a static cash flow securitisation of a portfolio of secured and unsecured loans originated and serviced by KBC Bank NV (KBC) to Belgian small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs).

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the 18 May 2021 payment date, the overall portfolio consisted of 25,294 loans with an aggregate principal balance of EUR 4,375 million. The portfolio is performing within DBRS Morningstar’s expectations. As of the payment date, cumulative defaulted loans represented 0.1% of the initial portfolio balance and delinquent loans represented 0.0% of the portfolio balance.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis on the remaining pool of receivables, and updated its default rate and maintained its recovery assumptions on the outstanding portfolio at 34.8% and 35.2%, respectively, at the AA (high) (sf) rating level. Based on the updated portfolio composition, DBRS Morningstar updated its base case PD, including coronavirus-related adjustments, to 2.0%.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of May 2021, the credit enhancement of the Notes was 31.1%, stable since closing because of the pro rata amortisation between the Notes and the subordinated loan, which provides credit enhancement. If a sequential trigger event occurs, then amortisation will be applied sequentially. Sequential trigger events include a cumulative default trigger, a dynamic delinquency trigger, and the subordinated loan balance dropping below than 33% of its original balance.

The transaction benefits from a nonamortising Reserve Account totalling EUR 50 million (1% of the original portfolio). The Reserve Account is available to cover shortfall on senior expenses, swap payments, and interest on the Notes as well as amounts on the Notes principal deficiency ledger throughout the life of the transaction.

KBC acts as account bank provider and swap counterparty for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s account bank reference rating of AA on KBC (which is one notch below DBRS Morningstar’s public Long Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) on KBC at AA (high)), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigant factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating of the Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

KBC’s COR is consistent with the first rating threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in its proprietary Excel-based cash flow engine.

The coronavirus and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that payment holidays and delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many SME transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate on receivables granted to obligors operating in certain industries based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions of the coronavirus. As per DBRS Morningstar’s assessment, 3.1% and 13.8% of the outstanding portfolio balance represented industries classified in the mid-high and high-risk economic sectors, respectively. This led the underlying one-year PDs to be multiplied by 1.5 times (x) and 2.0x, respectively, as per DBRS Morningstar’s “European Structured Credit Transactions’ Risk Exposure to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Effect” commentary released on 18 May 2020, wherein DBRS Morningstar discussed the overall risk exposure of the SME sector to the coronavirus and provided a framework for identifying the transactions that are more at risk and more likely to be affected by the fallout of the pandemic on the economy. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361098/european-structured-credit-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

DBRS Morningstar also conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio. As of 30 April 2021, EUR 116.9 million (2.7% of the current outstanding balance) was reported as currently benefitting from coronavirus-related moratoriums.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020–22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 18 June 2021. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380281/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs” (28 June 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the surveillance section of the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include the investor report provided by KBC and loan-by-loan data from the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first rating action since the Initial Rating Date.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Helvia Meana.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):

-- PD Rates Used: Base-case PD of 1.8%, a 10% increase of the base case and a 20% increase of the base-case PD.
-- Recovery Rates Used: Base-case recovery rate of 25.8% and 43.6% at the AA (high) (sf) rating level, a 10% and 20% decrease in the base-case recovery rates. Note that the percentage decreases in the recovery rates are assumed for the other stress recovery-rate levels.

DBRS Morningstar concludes that a hypothetical increase of the base-case PDs by 20% or a hypothetical decrease of the recovery rates by 20%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a confirmation of the transaction at AA (high) (sf). A scenario combining both an increase in the PD by 10% and a decrease in the recovery rate by 10% would also lead to a confirmation of the Notes at AA (high) (sf).

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Helvia Meana, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 15 July 2020

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs (28 June 2021) and DBRS Morningstar SME Diversity Model v2.5.0.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380640/rating-clos-backed-by-loans-to-european-smes.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (9 July 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381400/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Cash Flow Assumptions for Corporate Credit Securitizations (8 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373422/cash-flow-assumptions-for-corporate-credit-securitizations
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit (8 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373423/rating-clos-and-cdos-of-large-corporate-credit.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (6 April 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/376314/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (8 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373435/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367092/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (19 November 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370270/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].