DBRS Morningstar Upgrades Ratings on Sunrise SPV 20 S.r.l.- Sunrise 2017-2

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded the ratings on the notes (the Rated Notes) issued by Sunrise SPV 20 S.r.l.- Sunrise 2017-2 (the Issuer) as follows:

-- Class B Notes upgraded to AAA (sf) from AA (sf)
-- Class C Notes upgraded to AA (high) (sf) from A (sf)
-- Class D Notes upgraded to AA (low) (sf) from BBB (sf)
-- Class E Notes upgraded to BBB (high) (sf) from BB (low) (sf)

The ratings address the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in November 2041.

The upgrades follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the June 2021 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels; and
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The Issuer is a securitisation of unsecured Italian consumer loan receivables underwritten to retail clients and originated by Agos Ducato S.p.A. (Agos), which also acts as the servicer for the transaction portfolio. The outstanding EUR 261.6 million portfolio, as of the June 2021 payment date, comprised loans for new and used autos, personal loans, furniture loans, and loans for other purposes. Of the loans in the portfolio, 71.6% are flexible loans that allow the borrower the option to skip one monthly instalment per year (up to a maximum of five times during the life of the loan) and to modify the amount of the monthly instalments. The transaction closed in October 2017 and incorporated a 12-month revolving period.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the June 2021 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months delinquent represented 1.7% and 1.0% of the principal outstanding balance of the portfolio, respectively, while loans that were more than three months delinquent represented 1.2%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 2.8% of the aggregate original portfolio balance, with cumulative recoveries of 7.1% to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar received updated historical vintage data and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions based on the current portfolio composition to 7.0% and 88.8%, respectively, from 7.6% and 88.1%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior obligations and the cash reserve provides credit enhancement to the Rated Notes. As of the June 2021 payment date, credit enhancements to the Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E Notes were 61.6%, 38.4%, 27.5%, and 16.2%, respectively, up from 41.4%, 26.2%, 19.1%, and 11.7% at the last annual review, respectively. The increase in credit enhancement prompted the upgrades on the Rated Notes.

The transaction benefits from several funded reserves. The nonamortising payment interruption risk reserve account with a current balance of EUR 4.46 million is available to cover senior expenses and interest payments on the Rated Notes, providing liquidity support to the transaction. Credit support is provided through an amortising cash reserve with a target balance equal to 3% of the outstanding performing collateral principal. The current balance of the cash reserve is EUR 7.85 million, which the Issuer can use to offset the principal losses of defaulted receivables. An amortising commingling reserve has also been funded with a current balance of EUR 6.69 million, which may become available to the Issuer upon insolvency of the servicer or any of the servicer’s account banks. All reserves are currently at their target levels.

The transaction structure additionally provisions for a pata posticipata cash reserve, which mitigates the liquidity risk arising from flexible loans. This reserve will be only funded if, for two consecutive payment dates, the outstanding balance of the flexible loans in relation to which the debtors have exercised the contractual right to postpone the payments is higher than 5% of the outstanding balance of all flexible loans. As of the June 2021 payment date, this condition has not been breached.

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank S.A., Milan branch (CACIB-Milan) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on CACIB-Milan, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the Rated Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The coronavirus and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many structured finance transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020–22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 18 June 2021. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380281/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details please see https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by CACIB-Milan, servicer reports provided by Agos, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH. In the context of a new transaction, DBRS Morningstar was also provided with updated historical performance data as follows:

-- Quarterly static gross loss data, spanning from Q1 2004 to Q2 2021,
-- Quarterly static recovery data, spanning from Q1 2001 to Q2 2021,
-- Dynamic delinquencies from Q2 2008 to Q1 2021, and
-- Dynamic prepayments from Q1 2003 to Q1 2021.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 2 September 2020, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its ratings on the Class A Notes at AAA (sf) and upgraded its ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E Notes to AA (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), and BB (low) (sf), respectively.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Alfonso Candelas.
Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 7.0% and 88.8%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class B Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class B Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class B Notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf).

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)

Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)

Class E Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Christian Aufsatz, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 27 September 2017

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (8 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373435/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (29 July 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382171/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (19 November 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370270/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (3 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366294/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (30 July 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382486/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].