DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Fastnet Securities 11 DAC

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA (sf) ratings on the Class A2 and Class A3 notes issued by Fastnet Securities 11 DAC (Fastnet 11 or the Issuer).

The ratings address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in August 2056.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults and losses as of the December 2021 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Fastnet 11 is a securitisation of first-lien Irish residential mortgages originated and serviced by Permanent tsb p.l.c. (PTSB). The transaction closed in March 2016 with an initial portfolio balance of EUR 2.02 billion, and additional assets in the amount of EUR 0.89 billion purchased on the first payment date in April 2016.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the December 2021 payment date, loans that were 30 to 60 days and 60 to 90 days delinquent represented 0.3% and 0.1% of the outstanding portfolio balance, respectively, while loans more than 90 days delinquent represented 1.2%. The cumulative realised losses to date have amounted to 0.03% of the aggregate initial portfolio balance.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 3.8% and 21.0%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior obligations and the general reserve fund provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. As of the December 2021 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A2 and Class A3 notes has increased to 96.2% and 53.7% respectively from 76.4% and 42.2% at the time of the last annual review 12 months ago.

The transaction benefits from a nonamortising general reserve fund, providing credit support to the rated notes. The reserve is currently equal to its target level of EUR 58.2 million. The transaction additionally benefits from an amortising liquidity reserve fund with a target balance equal to 2.5% of the outstanding rated notes balance, currently at its target of EUR 14.0 million.

The Bank of New York Mellon, London Branch (BNYM) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar public rating of BNYM at AA (high), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions. The ratings are based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers and conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 9 December 2021. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/389454/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns-december-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

On 14 June 2021, DBRS Morningstar updated its 5 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the coronavirus crisis on performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe one year on. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380094/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-european-mortgage-performance-one-year-on and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by PTSB and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 24 December 2020, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the ratings of the Class A2 and Class A3 notes at AAA (sf).

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 3.8% and 21.0%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A2 notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), ceteris paribus. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A2 notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), ceteris paribus. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A2 notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), ceteris paribus.

Class A2 Risk Sensitivity: -- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) Class A3 Risk Sensitivity: -- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Daniel Rakhamimov, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: David Lautier, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 24 March 2016

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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (8 February 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373435/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (29 November 2021) and European RMBS Credit Model v 1.0.0.0,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/388848/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (29 July 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382171/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (16 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384513/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384920/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].