DBRS Morningstar Assigns Provisional Ratings to NewDay Funding Loan Note Issuer and NewDay Funding Master Issuer, Series 2022-2

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) assigned provisional ratings to the notes (the Notes) to be issued by NewDay Funding Loan Note Issuer Ltd (Class A Loan Note only) and NewDay Funding Master Issuer plc (collectively, the Issuers) as follows:

-- Series 2022-2, Class A Loan Note at AA (sf)
-- Series 2022-2, Class C Notes at A (low) (sf)
-- Series 2022-2, Class D Notes at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Series 2022-2, Class E Notes at BB (low) (sf)
-- Series 2022-2, Class F Notes at B (sf)

The provisional ratings are based on information provided to DBRS Morningstar by the Issuers and their agents as of the date of this press release. The ratings can be finalised upon review of final information, data, legal opinions, and the governing transaction documents. To the extent that the information or the documents provided to DBRS Morningstar as of this date differ from the final information, DBRS Morningstar may assign different final ratings to the Notes.

The ratings address the timely payment of scheduled interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the relevant legal final maturity dates.

The Notes are backed by a portfolio of own-branded credit cards granted by NewDay Cards, the originator, to individuals domiciled in the UK.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- The transaction’s capital structure, including form and sufficiency of available credit enhancement to support DBRS Morningstar’s revised expectation of charge-off, principal payment, and yield rates under various stress scenarios.
-- The ability of the transaction to withstand stressed cash flow assumptions and repay the Notes.
-- The originator’s capabilities with respect to origination, underwriting, and servicing.
-- An operational risk review of the originator, which DBRS Morningstar deems to be an acceptable servicer.
-- The transaction parties’ financial strength regarding their respective roles.
-- The credit quality, diversification of the collateral, and historical and projected performance of the securitised portfolio.
-- DBRS Morningstar’s sovereign rating on the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at AA (high) with a Stable trend.
-- The consistency of the transaction’s legal structure with DBRS Morningstar’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

TRANSACTION STRUCTURE
The Notes are to be issued out of NewDay Funding Loan Note Issuer and NewDay Funding Master Issuer as part of the NewDay Funding related master issuance structure, where all series of notes are supported by the same pool of receivables and generally issued under the same requirements regarding servicing, amortisation events, priority of distributions, and eligible investments.

The transaction includes a scheduled revolving period. During this period, additional receivables may be purchased and transferred to the securitised pool, provided that the eligibility criteria set out in the transaction documents are satisfied. The revolving period may end earlier than scheduled if certain events occur, such as the breach of performance triggers or servicer termination. The scheduled revolving period may be extended by the servicer by up to 12 months. If the Notes are not fully redeemed at the end of the respective scheduled revolving periods, the transaction enters into a rapid amortisation.

As the Notes carry floating-rate coupons based on the rate of daily compounded Sterling Overnight Index Average (Sonia), the interest rate mismatch risk between the fixed-rate collateral and the floating rate Notes is to certain degree mitigated by excess spread in the transaction and is considered in DBRS Morningstar’s cash flow analysis.

The transaction includes a series-specific liquidity reserve that is available to cover the shortfalls in senior expenses and interest due on the Class A, Class C, and Class D Notes and would amortise to a floor of GBP 250,000.

COUNTERPARTIES
HSBC Bank plc is the account bank for the transactions. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on HSBC Bank plc and the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be commensurate with the ratings assigned.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
Recent total payment rates including the interest collections in the servicer report are above historical levels and the estimated monthly principal payment rates (MPPRs) of the securitised portfolio after removing the interest collections have been stable above 8%. Nonetheless, it remains to be seen if these levels are sustainable in the current challenging environment of further Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) variants, uneven economic recovery, persistent inflationary pressures and interest rate increases. DBRS Morningstar therefore elected to maintain the expected MPPR at 8%.

The portfolio yield was largely stable over the reported period until March 2020. The most recent performance in May 2022 showed a total yield of 30.3%, which increased from the record low of 25.0% in May 2020 due to higher delinquencies and the forbearance measures offered (such as payment holidays and payment freeze). Based on the observed trend, DBRS Morningstar maintained the expected yield at 24.5%.

The reported historical annualised charge-off rates have been high but stable at around 16% until June 2020. The most recent performance in May 2022 showed a charge-off rate of 10.5% after reaching a record high of 17.1% in April 2020. Based on the analysis of historical data and in consideration of the current challenging environment, DBRS Morningstar continued to maintain the expected charge-off rate at 18%.

DBRS Morningstar also elected to stress the asset performance deterioration over a longer period for the Notes rated below investment grade in accordance with its “Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations” methodology.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in its proprietary cash flow tool.

Notes:
All figures are in British pound sterling unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: “Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations” (29 October 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include the following data provided by the arranger, NewDay Cards, or monthly servicer reports:
-- Securitised portfolio: Receivables balances, payment rates, yield, charge-off rates, and purchase rates for the month of March 2022;
-- Total managed portfolio: Monthly historical dynamic data from June 2007 to March 2022 and static data from Q1 2008 to Q3 2021, including the own brands portfolio in respect of receivables balances, payment rates, gross charge-offs, gross yield, delinquencies, purchase rates, and recoveries; and
-- Stratification tables in relation to the total pool as of 31 March 2022.

Additional data was also provided with regard to utilisation rate, credit limits, dilutions, and interest rates.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

These ratings concern expected-to-be-issued new financial instruments. These are the first DBRS Morningstar ratings on these financial instruments.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to determine the ratings:

-- Expected Yield Rate of 24.5%
-- Expected MPPR of 8%
-- Expected Charge-Off Rate of 18%

Scenario 1: a 25% decrease in the Expected Yield Rate
Scenario 2: a 25% decrease in the Expected MPPR
Scenario 3: a 25% increase in the Expected Charge-Off Rate
Scenario 4: a 15% decrease in the Expected Yield Rate, a 15% decrease in the Expected MPPR, and a 15% increase in the Expected Charge-Off Rate.

DBRS Morningstar concludes that the expected ratings under the four stress scenarios are:
-- Class A : A (high) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (sf)
-- Class C: BBB (high) (sf), BBB (sf), BBB (high) (sf), BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class D : BB (sf), BB (sf), BB (sf), BB (low) (sf)
-- Class E: below B (low) (sf), B (high) (sf), B (low) (sf), below B (low) (sf)
-- Class F: below B (low) (sf), below B (low) (sf), below B (low) (sf), below B (low) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings GmbH for use in the European Union.

Lead Analyst: Michael Langholz, Senior Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: David Lautier, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 20 July 2022

DBRS Ratings Limited
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London EC3M 3BY United Kingdom
Tel. +44 (0) 20 7855 6600
Registered and incorporated under the laws of England and Wales: Company No. 7139960

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (29 October 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/399899/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (15 July 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/397034/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (29 July 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382171/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (16 September 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384512/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (16 September 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384513/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384920/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (17 May 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].