Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Upgrades Rating on Multi Lease AS S.r.l. (Multilease 4)

Consumer/Commercial Leases

July 29, 2022

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded its rating on the Class A Notes issued by Multi Lease AS S.r.l. (Multilease 4) (the Issuer) to AA (sf) from A (high) (sf).

The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in February 2047.

The upgrade follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the July 2022 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AA (sf) rating level.

The transaction is a securitisation of financial lease contracts granted by Sardaleasing S.p.A. to retail and corporate customers in Italy. The securitised receivables are financial claims towards the payment of regular installments by lessees but exclude the final optional instalments that include residual value.

As of the July 2022 payment date, the balance of the Class A Notes was EUR 934.8 million, down from EUR 1,321.0 million at closing, and the balance of the Class B Notes was EUR 475.0 million, the same as at closing because of the sequential amortisation of the notes. The outstanding EUR 1,461.9 million securitised portfolio consisted of real estate leasing (62.7% by loan balance), equipment leases (23.6%), vehicle leases (4.4%), and energetic (2.0%) and naval (7.4%) receivables.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the July 2022 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months delinquent represented 0.002% and 0.010% of the principal outstanding balance of the portfolio while loans that were more than three months delinquent represented 0.700%. There are no gross cumulative defaults reported so far.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 15.8% and 57.0%, respectively, including Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)-related adjustments as described below.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the Class B Notes provides credit enhancement to the Class A Notes. As of the July 2022 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 36.1%, up from 26.4% as of the initial rating date.

The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve account, which is available to cover senior expenses and missed interest payments on the Class A Notes. This account was funded at closing with EUR 13.54 million, and its target balance is equal to 1.0% of the outstanding principal of the portfolio as at the beginning of the preceding collection period, with a floor of EUR 6.7 million. The reserve currently stands at EUR 11.2 million and has been at its target since closing.

BNP Paribas Securities Services, Milan branch (BNP Milan) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar private rating of BNP Milan, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures had caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many financial lease receivable transactions. The rating is based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate granted to obligors operating in certain industries based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions of the coronavirus. As per DBRS Morningstar’s assessment, 16.0% of the outstanding portfolio balance belonged to industries classified in high-risk economic sectors, which leads to the underlying one-year PDs to be multiplied by 1.5 times, as per the commentary mentioned below. In addition, DBRS Morningstar conducted an additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potentially high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 29 June 2022. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/399022/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns-june-2022-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

On 10 February 2022, DBRS Morningstar updated its 18 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) crisis on the performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated structured credit transactions in Europe almost two years on. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/392167/two-years-into-covid-19-risks-to-european-structured-credit-transactions and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361098/european-structured-credit-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (19 May 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include quarterly reports provided by Zenith Service S.p.A. (the Master Servicer) and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first rating action since the Initial Rating Date.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Preben Cornelius Overas.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 15.8% and 57.0%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (low) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BB (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 30 July 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

Download This Press Release