Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Santander Consumer Spain Auto 2021-1 FT

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September 28, 2022

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the ratings on the notes issued by Santander Consumer Spain Auto 2021-1 FT (the Issuer) as follows:

-- Series A Notes at AA (low) (sf)
-- Series B Notes at A (sf)
-- Series C Notes at BBB (sf)
-- Series D Notes at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Series E Notes at BB (sf)

The rating on the Series A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date in June 2035. The ratings on the Series B Notes, Series C Notes, Series D Notes, and Series E Notes address the ultimate payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the September 2022 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels; and
-- No revolving termination events to date.

The transaction is a securitisation of Spanish auto loan receivables originated and serviced by Santander Consumer Finance., S.A. (SCF). The original portfolio of EUR 575.0 million consisted of loans granted primarily to private individuals for the purchase of both new and used vehicles. The transaction closed in September 2021 and includes a 15-month revolving period, which is scheduled to end in March 2023.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the September 2022 payment date, loans that were 0 to 30 days, 30 to 60 days, and 60 to 90 days delinquent represented 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% of the outstanding portfolio balance, respectively. Gross cumulative defaults, defined as loans more than 90 days in arrears, amounted to 0.5% of the aggregate initial and subsequent portfolios original balance, 34.7% of which has been recovered to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 5.4% and 49.4%, respectively, based on updated historical performance data received from the originator in the course of its latest securitisation.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior obligations provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. As of the September 2022 payment date, credit enhancement to the Series A, Series B, Series C, Series D, and Series E Notes was 11.8%, 6.0%, 2.0%, 1.0%, and 0.0%, respectively. The credit enhancement levels have remained stable since DBRS Morningstar’s initial rating because of the revolving period, scheduled to end in March 2023.

The transaction benefits from liquidity support provided by an amortising cash reserve, available to cover senior expenses and interest payments on the rated notes. The reserve has a target balance equal to 1.0% of the outstanding balance of the Series A to Series E Notes, subject to a floor of EUR 1.44 million. As of the September 2022 payment date, the reserve was at its target balance of EUR 5.75 million.

SCF acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar's private rating on SCF, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Banco Santander SA (Santander) acts as the hedging counterparty in the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's public Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA (low) on Santander is consistent with the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant impact on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings (17 May 2022).

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (19 May 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted. Due to the inclusion of a revolving period in the transaction, the analysis continues to consider potential portfolio migration based on the replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include quarterly transaction reports and information provided by Santander de Titulización S.G.F.T., S.A. (the Management Company) and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH. In the context of a new transaction from the same originator, DBRS Morningstar was also provided with updated historical performance data as follows:
-- Quarterly default vintage analysis from Q1 2013 to Q4 2021;
-- Quarterly recovery vintage analysis from Q1 2013 to Q4 2021; and
-- Dynamic monthly delinquency data from Q1 2013 to Q4 2021.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 30 September 2021, when DBRS Morningstar finalised its provisional ratings on the Series A, Series B, Series C, Series D, and Series E Notes at AA (low) (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), BBB (low) (sf), and BB (sf), respectively.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Daniel Rakhamimov.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 5.4% and 49.4%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Series A Notes would be expected to fall to A (sf), ceteris paribus. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Series A Notes would be expected to fall to A (sf), ceteris paribus. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Series A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (sf).

Series A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)

Series B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)

Series C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)

Series D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)

Series E Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Daniel Rakhamimov, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 2 September 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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