DBRS Morningstar Confirms AA (low) Ratings on Banca Nazionale del Lavoro S.p.A. Covered Bonds (OBG - Mortgages)

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AA (low) ratings on the Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite (OBG; the Italian legislative covered bonds) issued under the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro S.p.A. Covered Bonds Programme (the Programme). This rating action follows the completion of a full review of the Programme.

Concurrently, DBRS Morningstar discontinued its AA (low) ratings on Series 6 (ISIN IT0005123507) and Series 16 (ISIN IT0005416992), which were repaid on 28 July 2022.

As of the date of this rating action, there were five series of OBG under the Programme, totalling an outstanding nominal amount of EUR 11.1 billion. The series are guaranteed by Vela OBG S.r.l.

The ratings reflect the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of AA (low). Banca Nazionale del Lavoro S.p.A. (BNL) is the Issuer and the reference entity (RE) for the programme. There is no Critical Obligations Rating associated with the RE, but DBRS Morningstar classifies Italy as a jurisdiction for which covered bonds (CB) are a particularly important financing tool.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Modest” associated with the Programme.
-- An LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L) of AA (low).
-- No uplift for recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 9.1% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, which is the minimum observed OC level over the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.
-- The sovereign rating on the Republic of Italy, rated BBB (high) with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar, as of the date of this rating action.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction using its European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, and interest rate stresses.

Everything else equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade on the CB ratings.

BNL acts as the account bank for this transaction. Based on its rating and on the replacement provisions included in the documentation, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk of such counterparty to be consistent with the ratings assigned, in accordance with its “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” and “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodologies.

BNL also acts as the cover pool (CP) swap counterparty. However, the swap documentation is not in line with DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology and as a consequence, DBRS Morningstar did not give credit to the swaps in its analysis.

The total outstanding amount of OBG is currently EUR 11.1 billion. As at 30 September 2022, the CP was composed of EUR 15.1 billion of residential (92.0% of the loan balance), commercial (7.3%), and public sector (0.7%) mortgages plus EUR 451 million of cash, resulting in a total OC of 36.8%.

The weighted-average (WA) current loan-to-value ratio of the mortgages was 48.3% with an average seasoning of 4.8 years as at 30 September 2022. The assets securing the loans in the CP were mainly located in the Italian regions of Lazio (22.4% of the loan balance) and Lombardy (15.6%).

The CP comprised fixed-for-life loans (86.2% by outstanding balance) and floating-rate loans (13.8%). The floating-rate mortgage loans are indexed to different plain-vanilla indices and reset at different dates.

By comparison, 100% of the liabilities pay a floating rate linked to three-month Euribor. DBRS Morningstar considered the resulting interest and basis risks as unhedged in its cash flow analysis.

All CP assets and OBG are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign-exchange risk.

The weighted-average life (WAL) of the CP was 9.1 years as at 30 September 2022 whereas the WAL of the OBG, as of the date of this rating action, was 2.1 years, taking into account the expected maturities. The resulting asset-liability maturity mismatch is mitigated by the OC.

DBRS Morningstar has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Modest”, according to its “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodology. For more information, please refer to the DBRS Morningstar commentary “Italian Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite Legal and Structuring Framework” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings (17 May 2022).

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds (22 April 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to "Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings" of the "Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments" at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include historical performance data (static pool default data from 2009 to 2022 for the residential pool and from 2000 to 2022 for the commercial pool; dynamic pool delinquency data from 2012 to 2022 and prepayments data from 2010 to 2022) as well as loan-level and stratification information on the CP as at 30 September 2022 provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 6 July 2022, when DBRS Morningstar assigned a AA (low) rating to Series 20 issued under the Programme.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Antonio Laudani, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 16 December 2019

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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