DBRS Morningstar Assigns AAA Rating to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Mortgage Covered Bond New Issuance

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) assigned a AAA rating to a new series of covered bonds issued by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. (BBVA or the Issuer) under the BBVA Covered Bonds (Cédulas Hipotecarias or CH) programme (the Programme). The new CH (Cedulas Hipotecarias - ES0413211A75) comprises the issuance of EUR 1,500 million of fixed-rate securities with a 3.125% annual coupon, maturing on 17 July 2027.

At the same time, DBRS Morningstar discontinued its ratings on CH ES0413211774, CH ES0413211949 and CH ES0413211956, which the issuer amortised early.

The rating is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of AA (low), which is BBVA’s Long Term Critical Obligations Rating. Caixabank is the Issuer and Reference Entity (RE) for the Programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Strong” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of A (low), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of AA (high).
-- A one-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 33.3% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, which is the minimum level observed in the last 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.
-- The sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain, rated ‘A’ with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar, as of the date of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction with its European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses, and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the CP.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the CB ratings. In addition, all else unchanged, the CH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA was downgraded below A (low); (2) the sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain was downgraded below A (low); (3) the LSF assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded; (4) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a one-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profile of the CH and CP moved adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets caused the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

The total outstanding amount of CH under the programme is currently EUR 24.8 billion, of which DBRS Morningstar publicly rates EUR 16.3 billion. As of September 2022, the total outstanding amount of CH under the programme was EUR 26.9 billion, while the assets in the CP amounted EUR 42.0 billion. This resulted in a total estimated OC of 55.8%.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the “DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” (22 April 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/395642/rating-and-monitoring-covered-bonds.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

In DBRS Morningstar’s opinion, the changes under consideration do not require the application of the entire principal methodology. Therefore, DBRS Morningstar focused on the cash flow analysis.

A review of the transaction legal documents was limited to the final terms of the new issuance.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to "Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings" of the "Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments" at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include the CP stratification tables provided by the Issuer as at 30 September 2022.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 8 July 2022 , when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its AAA ratings on the outstanding CH under the programme.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Tomas Rodriguez-Vigil Junco, Vice President, Credit Ratings
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 20 February 2013

DBRS Ratings GmbH, Sucursal en España
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28046 Madrid, Spain
Tel. +34 (91) 903 6500

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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