DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Rocky 2021-1 SPV S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its A (high) (sf) rating on the Class A Notes issued by Rocky 2021-1 SPV S.r.l. (the Issuer).

The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in April 2041.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of the level of delinquencies and defaults, as of the March 2023 payment date.
-- No revolving period termination events have occurred.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the A (high) (sf) rating level.

The transaction is a securitisation backed by a pool of fixed-rate receivables related to consumer and auto loans granted by Deutsche Bank S.p.A. (DB SpA or the originator) to private individuals residing in Italy. The originator also services the portfolio. The transaction closed in April 2021 and included an initial amortisation period until the Class A Notes reached an outstanding amount of EUR 3.5 billion; once the Class A Notes reached this level in August 2021, the transaction entered into the revolving period, which is scheduled to end on the payment date in May 2024. The revolving period may end prematurely following the breach of certain performance triggers that would cause a revolving period termination event. To date, all performance triggers have been met.

The transaction is also naturally hedged against interest rate risk as both the receivables and the Class A Notes pay a fixed interest rate.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the March 2023 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months delinquent represented 0.7% and 0.3% of the portfolio balance, respectively, while loans more than three months delinquent represented 0.8%. There are no gross defaults reported to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY RATING DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar maintained its base case PD and LGD assumptions at 7.0% and 80.0%, respectively. Given the revolving period, DBRS Morningstar continues to base its analysis on the potential portfolio migration and the replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the Class B Notes provides credit enhancement to the Class A Notes. As of the March 2023 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 18.3%, up from 16.5% at closing following the initial amortisation period, which allowed for some credit enhancement to build up.

The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve account, which is available to cover senior expenses and missed interest payments on the Class A Notes. This account was funded at closing with an amount equal to EUR 23.8 million through a part of the proceeds of the Class B Notes issuance. The cash reserve has a target balance equal to 0.5% of the aggregate notes balance and is static during the initial amortisation and the revolving period. After the revolving period ends, the reserve will amortise in line with the targeted amount down to a floor equal to EUR 9.5 million.

DB SpA is a dominant counterparty for the transaction as it acts as the servicer, account bank, and paying agent. It also holds the servicer collection account, the collection account, the cash reserve account, the investment account (if any), and the payments account. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on DB SpA, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to DB SpA to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant impact on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the “DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted. Due to the inclusion of a revolving period in the transaction, the analysis continues to consider potential portfolio migration based on replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include monthly investor reports provided by DB SpA and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 19 April 2022, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its A (high) (sf) rating on the Class A Notes.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 7.0% and 80.0%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 30 April 2021

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 July 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/400166/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (15 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402773/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402774/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (19 October 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/404212/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (15 July 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/399899/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (17 May 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402943/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].