DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Fucino RMBS S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its ratings on the Class A1 and Class B Notes issued by Fucino RMBS S.r.l. (the Issuer) at AA (low) (sf) and A (sf), respectively.

The rating on the Class A1 Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the final maturity date in December 2063. The rating on the Class B Notes (together with the Class A1 Notes, the rated notes) addresses the ultimate payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the final maturity date in December 2063.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the March 2023 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels.

Fucino RMBS S.r.l. is a securitisation of residential mortgage loans granted by Banca del Fucino S.p.A. (Banca del Fucino) to individuals and families residing in Italy. Banca del Fucino services the portfolio, with Centotrenta Servicing S.p.A. acting as the backup servicer. The portfolio shows a notable concentration in central Italy, especially in the regions of Lazio and Abruzzo.

The transaction initially closed in April 2019, when the Class A, Class B, and Class J Notes were issued. In June 2022 (the subsequent issue date), the transaction was amended. As part of the amendment, a new series of notes, the Class A1 Notes, were issued; an additional portfolio was purchased; the Class A Notes were redeemed; and the Class B and Class J Notes were partially repaid.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
The portfolio is performing within DBRS Morningstar’s expectations. As of the February 2023 cut-off date, arrears were low, with the 90+ delinquency ratio at 0.1% of the portfolio performing balance, while no loans defaults have been recorded so far.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the outstanding pool of receivables and updated its base-case PD and LGD assumptions to 8.1% and 18.7%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
Overcollateralisation of the outstanding collateral portfolio provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. As of the March 2023 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A1 and Class B Notes was 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively, up from 12.9% and 9.2%, respectively, as of the subsequent issue date.

The transaction benefits from a cash reserve, which provides liquidity support and is available to cover senior fees, swap payments, and coupon payments on the Class A1 Notes only. As of the latest payment date, the cash reserve was at its target level of EUR 3.8 million, or 3.5% of the outstanding balance of the rated notes. The cash reserve is floored at 1.0% of the rated notes balance as of the subsequent issue date.

BNP Paribas SA acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on BNP Paribas SA’s reference rating of AA (which is one notch below its DBRS Morningstar Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA (high)), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar’s "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Three swap transactions are in place: two to hedge the basis risk, and one to hedge the fixed-floating interest rate risk. J.P. Morgan SE acts as the swap counterparty. DBRS Morningstar has only given credit to the fixed-floating swap, as the swap documentation of the basis swaps is not fully compliant with DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the “DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include payment reports provided by Centotrenta Servicing S.p.A., servicer reports and additional information provided by Banca del Fucino, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

Both at the time of the initial ratings and at the time of the subsequent issue date, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 16 June 2022, when DBRS Morningstar:
-- Assigned a AA (low) (sf) rating to the then newly issued Class A1 Notes
-- Discontinued the AAA (sf) rating on the Class A Notes, following their repayment
-- Downgraded the rating on the Class B Notes to A (sf) from AA (sf)

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 8.1% and 18.7%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. Taking the Class A1 Notes as an example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A1 Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A1 Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A1 Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf).

Class A1 Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Pascale Kallas, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 15 April 2019

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
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Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology (27 March 2023) and European RMBS Insight Model v.5.8.0.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/411634/european-rmbs-insight-methodology.
-- European RMBS Insight: Italian Addendum (29 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/403237/european-rmbs-insight-italian-addendum.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 July 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/400166/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402943/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402774/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (20 September 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384624/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (17 May 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].