Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Upgrades and Confirms Credit Ratings on Autonoria Spain 2019, FT

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December 07, 2023

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) took the following credit rating actions on the bonds (together, the rated notes) issued by Autonoria Spain 2019, FT (the Issuer):
-- Class A Notes confirmed at AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes upgraded to AA (high) (sf) from AA (sf)
-- Class C Notes upgraded to AA (low) (sf) from A (sf)
-- Class D Notes confirmed at BBB (sf)
-- Class E Notes upgraded to BB (high) (sf) from BB (sf)
-- Class F Notes upgraded to B (high) (sf) from B (sf)
-- Class G Notes confirmed at C (sf)

The credit rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of scheduled interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date. The credit ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, Class F, and Class G Notes address the ultimate payment (then timely as most-senior class) of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date in December 2035.

The credit rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the October 2023 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses at their respective credit rating levels.

The transaction is a securitisation backed by retail auto loan receivables associated with a portfolio of new and used vehicle loans originated by Banco Cetelem S.A.U. (Banco Cetelem) to Spanish borrowers. The transaction included an initial one-year revolving period, which ended on the December 2020 payment date.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the October 2023 payment date, loans that were one to two months delinquent represented 0.2% of the portfolio balance while loans that were two to three months and loans more than three months delinquent both represented 0.1% of the portfolio balance. Gross cumulative defaults in terms of the initial portfolio balance, including additional purchases that occurred during the revolving period, amounted to 1.0%, of which 50.9% has been recovered so far.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan review of the remaining pool of receivables and maintained its base case PD and LGD assumptions at 4.4% and 85.3%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior class of notes provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. As of the October 2023 payment date, credit enhancements to the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, Class F, and Class G Notes have remained unchanged since closing at 21.0%, 18.0%, 12.5%, 7.0%, 5.0%, 2.5%, and 0%, respectively, because of the pro rata amortisation of the notes. If a sequential redemption event is triggered, the principal repayment of the notes will become sequential and nonreversible.

While credit enhancement levels have remain unchanged, DBRS Morningstar views the lower note factor of 0.25 as a positive development. Such decrease, together with the good performance observed so far, has led to the upgrade of the Class B, Class C, Class E, and Class F Notes.

The structure benefits from a liquidity reserve that was funded at closing and is available to cover interest deficiencies on the rated notes if principal collections are not sufficient to cover shortfalls. The liquidity reserve is currently at its target of EUR 4.65 million. The target amount may be maintained through the transaction’s priority of payments during the normal redemption period, up to the earlier of the full repayment of the Class D Notes or the commencement of the accelerated amortisation period. Once the Class D Notes have been redeemed, the target amount will be set at zero.

BNP Paribas S.A. Sucursal en España acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private credit rating on BNP Paribas S.A. Sucursal en España, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the credit ratings assigned to the rated notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Banco Cetelem acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction, which in turn is guaranteed by BNP Paribas Personal Finance. DBRS Morningstar's private credit rating on BNP Paribas Personal Finance is consistent with the first credit rating threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar’s credit ratings on the rated notes address the credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in accordance with the relevant transaction documents.

DBRS Morningstar’s credit ratings do not address non-payment risk associated with contractual payment obligations contemplated in the applicable transaction documents that are not financial obligations.

DBRS Morningstar’s long-term credit ratings provide opinions on risk of default. DBRS Morningstar considers risk of defaults to be the risk that an issuer will fail to satisfy the financial obligations in accordance with the term under which a long-term obligation has been issued.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416784.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the credit rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 October 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/422281/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent credit rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance credit ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/421590/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these credit ratings include investor reports provided by BNP Paribas Personal Finance and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial credit ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the credit rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these credit ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the credit rating process.

The last credit rating action on this transaction took place on 7 December 2022, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its credit ratings of AAA (sf), AA (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), BB (sf), B (sf) and C (sf) on the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, Class F and G Notes, respectively.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar credit ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the credit ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the credit ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 4.4% and 85.3%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the credit ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption.

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)

Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (low) (sf)

Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)

Class E Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (sf)

Class F Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)

The Class G Notes are in a first-loss position supported only by available excess spread. Given the characteristics of the Class G Notes, as defined in the transaction documents, the default would most likely be recognised at maturity or following an early termination of the transaction.

The Class G Notes’ credit rating would not be affected by a hypothetical change in either the PD or the LGD.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

These credit ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Credit Rating Date: 19 November 2019

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The credit rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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