Alberta's 2024 Budget: Savings on Tap

The Province of Alberta released its 2024 budget (Budget 2024) on February 29, 2024. Supported by the fiscal framework introduced last year, Alberta forecasts the continuation of small surpluses and declining debt-to-GDP. With Budget 2024, the government continues to emphasize saving for the future and reducing the Province's long-standing reliance on non-renewable resource revenues. While additional contributions to the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund are a noble first step, the real test, as always, will be how government responds when energy prices soften and difficult fiscal decisions are required.

Key Highlights:
-- Alberta's budget adheres to the fiscal framework introduced in 2023 and remains supportive of the current ratings.
-- Budget 2024 includes increased spending on priority areas of health and education, along with new personal income tax relief.
-- The medium-term fiscal plan points to the continuation of modest surpluses through 2026–27.
-- Alberta's debt outlook remains relatively unchanged from our prior review with adjusted debt-to-GDP forecast to fall below 16.0% by 2026–27.

“For 2024, the Province anticipates real GDP growth of 2.9% followed by 3.3% in 2025. This remains above private sector consensus forecast tracked by Morningstar DBRS, and combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, commodity price volatility, and evolution of inflation and interest rates, will present a myriad of risks that need to be carefully managed,” says Aditi Joshi, Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings.