CMBS Q2 2024 Maturity Research

There are more than $45 billion commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) fixed-rate loans maturing each year through 2028, peaking at $66.6 billion in 2025. In 2024 alone, the total is $45 billion for the remaining three quarters. We estimate an overall payoff rate of 50% to 55% of CMBS fixed-rate loans in 2024. Our outlook for the Q2 2024 overall maturity payoff rate of fixed-rate CMBS loans is in the range of 45% to 50%. The bulk of the Q2 2024 maturities are in the office and retail sectors.

With interest rates remaining high and inflation persisting, the payoff rate of maturing loans is expected to worsen, given the refinance challenges in the current macroeconomic environment. Unless borrowers are able to contribute more equity, we may see a significant number of defaults or loan modifications.