Morningstar DBRS Assigns Provisional Credit Ratings to Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2024-N3

DBRS, Inc. (Morningstar DBRS) assigned provisional credit ratings to the classes of notes issued by Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2024-N3 (CRVNA 2024-N3 or the Issuer) as follows:

-- $47,800,000 Class A-1 Notes at R-1 (high) (sf)
-- $148,900,000 Class A-2 Notes at AAA (sf)
-- $99,640,000 Class A-3 Notes at AAA (sf)
-- $78,000,000 Class B Notes at AA (sf)
-- $48,840,000 Class C Notes at A (high) (sf)
-- $62,620,000 Class D Notes at BBB (high) (sf)
-- $50,480,000 Class E Notes at BB (high) (sf)

CREDIT RATING RATIONALE/DESCRIPTION

The provisional credit ratings are based on Morningstar DBRS's review of the following analytical considerations:

(1) Transaction capital structure, proposed ratings, and form and sufficiency of available credit enhancement.
-- Initial credit enhancement is in the form of overcollateralization, subordination, a fully funded reserve fund, and excess spread. Credit enhancement levels are sufficient to support the Morningstar DBRS-projected cumulative net loss (CNL) assumption under various stress scenarios.

(2) The ability of the transaction to withstand stressed cash flow assumptions and repay investors according to the terms in which they have invested. For this transaction, the ratings address the payment of timely interest on a monthly basis and principal by the legal final maturity date.

(3) The transaction parties' capabilities with regard to originations, underwriting, and servicing.
-- Morningstar DBRS performed an operational review of Carvana, LLC (Carvana) and Bridgecrest Credit Company, LLC and considers the entities to be an acceptable originator and servicer, respectively, of auto loans.

(4) The operational history of Carvana and the strength of the overall company and its management team.
-- Company management has considerable experience in the consumer lending business.
-- Carvana has a technology-driven platform that focuses on providing the customer with high-level experience, selection, and value. Its website and smartphone app provide the consumer with vehicle search and discovery (currently showing more than 37,000 vehicles online); the ability to trade or sell vehicles almost instantaneously; and real-time, personalized financing. Carvana has developed underwriting policies and procedures for use across the lending platform that leverages technology where appropriate to validate customer identity, income, employment, residency, creditworthiness, and proper insurance coverage.
-- Carvana has developed multiple proprietary risk models to support various aspects of its vertically integrated automotive lending business. All proprietary risk models used in Carvana's lending business are regularly monitored and tested. The risk models are updated from time to time to adjust for new performance data, changes in customer and economic trends, and additional sources of third-party data.

(5) The credit quality of the collateral, which includes Carvana-originated loans with Deal Scores of 49 or lower.
As of the September 9, 2024 Cut-Off Date, the collateral pool for the transaction is primarily composed of receivables due from nonprime obligors with a nonzero weighted-average (WA) FICO score of 569, a WA annual percentage rate of 22.41%, and a WA loan-to-value ratio of 100.11%. Approximately 60.14%, 25.50%, and 14.36% of the pool include loans with Carvana Deal Scores greater than or equal to 30, between 10 and 29, and between 0 and 9, respectively.
Additionally, 1.39% is composed of obligors with FICO scores greater than 751, 28.71% consists of FICO scores between 601 and 750, and 69.90% is from obligors with FICO scores less than or equal to 600 or with no FICO score.
-- Morningstar DBRS analyzed the performance of Carvana's auto loan and retail installment contract originations and static pool vintage loss data broken down by Deal Score to determine a projected CNL expectation for the CRVNA 2024-N3 pool.

(6) The Morningstar DBRS CNL assumption is 15.50% based on the cut-off date pool composition.
-- The transaction assumptions consider Morningstar DBRS's baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereign economies, available in its commentary "Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios for Rated Sovereigns: June 2024 Update," published on June 28, 2024. These baseline macroeconomic scenarios replace Morningstar DBRS's moderate and adverse Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic scenarios, which were first published in April 2020.

(7) The legal structure and expected presence of legal opinions, which will address the true sale of the assets to the Issuer, the non-consolidation of the special-purpose vehicle with Carvana, that the trust has a valid first-priority security interest in the assets, and consistency with the Morningstar DBRS "Legal Criteria for U.S. Structured Finance."

Morningstar DBRS's credit rating on the securities referenced herein addresses the credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in accordance with the relevant transaction documents. The associated financial obligations for each of the rated notes are the related Accrued Note Interest and the related Note Balance.

Morningstar DBRS's credit rating does not address non-payment risk associated with contractual payment obligations that are not financial obligations.

Morningstar DBRS' long-term credit ratings provide opinions on risk of default. Morningstar DBRS considers risk of default to be the risk that an issuer will fail to satisfy the financial obligations in accordance with the terms under which a long-term obligation has been issued. The Morningstar DBRS short-term debt rating scale provides an opinion on the risk that an issuer will not meet its short-term financial obligations in a timely manner.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS   

There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factor(s) that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.
 
A description of how Morningstar DBRS considers ESG factors within the Morningstar DBRS analytical framework can be found in the Morningstar DBRS Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors in Credit Ratings (13 August 2024) https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/437781.

Notes:
All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.  
 
The principal methodology applicable to the credit ratings is Rating U.S. Retail Auto Loan Securitizations (06 August 2024) https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/437569
 
Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.  

The credit rating was initiated at the request of the rated entity. 

The rated entity or its related entities did participate in the credit rating process for this credit rating action.  

Morningstar DBRS had access to the accounts, management, and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this credit rating action. 

This is a solicited credit rating. 

A provisional credit rating is not a final credit rating with respect to the above-mentioned securities and may change or be different than the final credit rating assigned or may be discontinued. The assignment of final credit ratings on the above-mentioned securities is subject to receipt by Morningstar DBRS of all data and/or information and final documentation that Morningstar DBRS deems necessary to finalize the credit ratings.

Please see the related appendix for additional information regarding the sensitivity of assumptions used in the credit rating process. 

DBRS, Inc.
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New York, NY 10005 USA
Tel. +1 212 806-3277

The credit rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

Rating U.S. Structured Finance Transactions (August 6, 2024) https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/437571/rating-us-structured-finance-transactions

Operational Risk Assessment for U.S. ABS Originators and Servicers (August 6, 2024) https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/437545/operational-risk-assessment-for-us-abs-originators-and-servicers

Legal Criteria for U.S. Structured Finance (April 15, 2024) https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/431205

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.