U.S. CMBS Q4 2024 Maturity Research

The overall payoff rate for fixed-rate commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) loans that had a final maturity date in Q3 2024 increased to 52.5% from 43.5% in Q2 2024. Office showed some signs of improvement with the payoff rate increasing to 40.5% from a mere 20% in Q2 2024. We expect the CMBS payoff rate to be in the range of 45% to 50% for the fourth quarter of 2024. The bulk of the Q4 2024 maturities are in the office and retail sectors. Using our risk indicators, our outlook has the multifamily sector underperforming other property types.