Morningstar DBRS Confirms Barrick Gold Corporation's Issuer Rating at BBB With a Stable Trend

DBRS Limited (Morningstar DBRS) confirmed the Issuer Rating of Barrick Gold Corporation (Barrick or the Company) at BBB with a Stable trend.

KEY CREDIT RATING CONSIDERATIONS
The credit rating confirmation takes into account Barrick's stable, large-scale portfolio of operating assets that is expected to produce between 3.2 million and 3.5 million ounces in 2025, which is lower than production of 3.9 million ounces in 2024 as the Loulo-Gounkoto complex remains temporarily suspended pending the negotiation of a new mining agreement with the Malian government. Barrick is among the largest gold producers in the world. At the Company's flagship 61.5%-owned Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) joint venture with Newmont Corporation, production levels are expected to decrease by approximately 2% but still represent an expected 49% of Barrick's total production in 2025. The large resource at and around the NGM properties also has the potential in the medium term to improve the Company's business risk profile for Reserve Quality and Related Attributes.

CREDIT RATING DRIVERS
During 2024, Barrick did not have any long-term debt repayments, however, the Company paid out $0.7 billion of dividends and bought back $0.5 billion of its common shares. In the event that the cash surplus after dividends and share buybacks is used to acquire assets that are significantly accretive and improve Barrick's business risk profile, a positive credit rating action is possible. Conversely, a negative credit rating action is possible if gold prices decline by 40% for a sufficient period of time to cause a material deterioration in Barrick's key credit metrics to the point at which the Company's credit metrics do not support the rating.

EARNINGS OUTLOOK
Morningstar DBRS forecasts Barrick's EBITDA to be $5.0 billion in 2025, based on management guidance for gold production, assuming a restart of operations at Loulo-Gounkoto in Q2 2025, and the Bloomberg consensus gold price estimate of $2,713 per ounce (as of February 19, 2025). The decrease relative to 2024 is mostly a result of lower gold sales volumes and higher projected gold cash costs while gold price realization is higher year over year. For 2025, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are expected to be in the range of $1,460 per ounce to $1,560 per ounce, which is higher than the reported 2024 AISC of $1,484 per ounce.

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
We expect that Barrick's financial risk profile will remain in the "A" range based on the forecast for gold prices (Bloomberg consensus as of February 19, 2025). However, we note that there are significant risks to the global economy because of slower-than-expected growth combined with continued inflationary cost pressures especially related to higher labour and consumable costs. These pressures have been exacerbated by global geopolitical tensions.

CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
Barrick's business risk profile is assessed at the upper end of the BBB (low) band based on the Company's robust reserves and position as an industry leader where it is an established senior producer with operations globally.

Barrick also has a robust pipeline of brownfield growth projects. Among the most prominent projects are (1) the ramp-up of the newly commissioned Goldrush mine that began production in April 2024 and is currently undergoing a multi-year ramp-up to 400,000 ounces per annum by 2026 and the prefeasibility study underway at the high-grade Fourmile project, both of which are part of the Cortez complex at NGM; and (2) the mine life extension project at the Pueblo Viejo (PV) operations in the Dominican Republic. At PV, Barrick expects to begin the feasibility study for additional tailings storage capacity in 2025. The construction of a new tailings storage facility will provide the opportunity to extend the mine life out to the 2040s, which could materially improve the Company's business risk profile.

The Company had a favourable liquidity profile as of December 31, 2024, with $4.1 billion of cash, $3.0 billion in undrawn credit availability, and no material near-term debt maturities.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how Morningstar DBRS considers ESG factors within the Morningstar DBRS analytical framework can be found in the Morningstar DBRS Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/437781 (August 13, 2024).

BUSINESS RISK ASSESSMENT (BRA) AND FINANCIAL RISK ASSESSMENT (FRA)
(A) Weighting of BRA Factors
In the analysis of Barrick, the relative weighting of the BRA factors was approximately equal.

(B) Weighting of FRA Factors
In the analysis of Barrick, the relative weighting of the FRA factors was approximately equal.

(C) Weighting of the BRA and the FRA
In the analysis of Barrick, the BRA carries greater weight than the FRA.

Notes:
All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

Morningstar DBRS applied the following principal methodology:
-- Global Methodology for Rating Companies in the Mining and Forest Products Industries (November 14, 2024)
https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/442961

Morningstar DBRS credit ratings may use one or more sections of the Morningstar DBRS Global Corporate Criteria (February 3, 2025 https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/431153), which covers, for example, topics such as holding companies and parent/subsidiary relationships, guarantees, recovery, and common adjustments to financial ratios.

The following methodologies have also been applied:

-- Morningstar DBRS Criteria: Approach to ESG Factors in Credit Ratings (August 13, 2024) https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/437781

-- Morningstar DBRS Global Corporate Criteria (February 3, 2025) https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/447186

The credit rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://dbrs.morningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how Morningstar DBRS analyzes corporate finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/431153.

The related regulatory disclosures pursuant to the National Instrument 25-101 Designated Rating Organizations are hereby incorporated by reference and can be found by clicking on the link under Related Documents or by contacting us at info-DBRS@morningstar.com.

The credit rating was not initiated at the request of the rated entity.

The rated entity or its related entities did not participate in the credit rating process for this credit rating action.

Morningstar DBRS did not have access to the accounts, management and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this credit rating action.

This is an unsolicited credit rating.

The conditions that lead to the assignment of a Negative or Positive trend are generally resolved within a 12-month period. Morningstar DBRS trends and credit ratings are under regular surveillance.

Information regarding Morningstar DBRS credit ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on dbrs.morningstar.com or contact us at info-DBRS@morningstar.com.

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