U.S. CMBS Q1 2025 Maturity Research

The Q4 2024 maturity payoff rate for commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) fixed-rate loans came in at 61.2%, up from the Q3 2024 payoff rate of 52.5%. By property type, office showed some signs of improvement with the payoff rate increasing to 63% from 40.5% in Q3 2024, the hotel payoff rate remained in the same range in Q4 2024 at 79.7% from 84% in Q3 2024, while multifamily dropped to 34.5% from 53% in Q3 2024 and the retail payoff rate increased to 66.7% from 53% in Q3 2024. The bulk of the Q1 2025 maturities are in the office and retail sectors. Using our risk indicators, our outlook on the forecast payoff rate is the range of 40% to 45%. We expect the CMBS payoff rate for fixed-rate loans to be in the range of 50% to 55% for 2025.