DBRS Assigns BBB (low) Provisional Ratings to Piraeus Bank SA Global Covered Bonds (GCB – Mortgages – CPT)

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) assigned a provisional rating of BBB (low) to the Greek Covered Bonds (GCB; the Greek legislative covered bonds) issued under the EUR 10,000,000,000 Piraeus Bank SA Global Covered Bonds Programme (GCB – Mortgages – CPT) (the Programme).

There are five series currently outstanding under the Programme, with a total nominal amount of EUR 4.5 billion.

The rating reflects the following analytical considerations:

-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) that reflects the likelihood that the source of payments will switch from the Reference Entity (RE) to the cover pool (CP). Piraeus Bank SA (Piraeus) is the Issuer and RE for the Programme. DBRS does not currently classify Greece as a jurisdiction for which covered bonds (CB) are a particularly important financing tool. Piraeus is subject to the European Union’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive. The CP is composed of residential mortgage loans. DBRS considers it likely that this form of lending would be part of the activity of a going-concern entity possibly resulting from the resolution of the RE.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of Very Strong associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of B, being the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of BB.
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 27.4% to which DBRS gives credit, being the minimum observed OC level during the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.93. The Issuer contractually commits to maintaining a minimum 25% OC level in the nominal value test.

The transaction was analysed using the DBRS European Covered Bond Cash Flow Tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets and interest rate stresses. In accordance with the DBRS “Rating European Covered Bonds” methodology, no forced asset liquidation has been considered for this transaction, given the conditional pass-through structure, and DBRS has assumed several prepayment scenarios.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the CB rating.

In addition, everything else being equal, the CB rating would be downgraded if any of the following were to occur: (1) the CPCA were downgraded below B; (2) the LSF assessment associated with the Programme were downgraded; or (3) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.

Citibank NA, London Branch acts as Transaction Bank and holds the Commingling Reserve in a dedicated ledger of the Transaction Account. The DBRS private ratings of Citibank NA, London Branch comply with the threshold for the Account Bank, given the rating assigned to the GCB, as described in DBRS’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” and “Rating European Covered Bonds” methodologies.

The total outstanding amount of GCB is currently EUR 4.5 billion, while the aggregate balance of loans (as at June 2018) in the CP was EUR 5.9 billion of first-lien residential mortgage loans, resulting in a total OC of 32%.

As at June 2018, the CP comprised 134,293 residential mortgage loans originated by Piraeus.

The weighted-average current loan-to-value of the mortgages is 53.2% with an average seasoning of 114 months. The assets securing the loans in the CP are located predominantly in the regions of Attica (39.3%), Thessaloniki (11.2%) and Macedonia (9.8%).

The CP comprises 95% floating-rate mortgage loans, indexed to different plain vanilla bases, which reset at different dates. This compares with 100% of the liabilities paying a floating rate linked mostly to three-month Euribor plus a spread. The resulting interest and basis risks are not hedged.

DBRS analysed the CP using its European RMBS Insight Model and “European RMBS Insight: Greek Addendum” methodology. DBRS flagged 12.9% of the loans (by amounts outstanding) as restructured for the purposes of the European RMBS Insight Model. The expected loss is 16.14% in a B scenario and 31.7% in a BBB (low) scenario.

All CP assets and GCB are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign-exchange risk.

The Very Strong LSF Assessment associated with the Programme reflects DBRS’s view of the following:
(1) The Greek CB legal framework giving CB holders first priority right on the CP, in combination with a residual commingling risk that DBRS considers mitigated by giving limited credit to the amounts standing to the credit of the collection account held with Piraeus and the daily sweep;
(2) The contractually sanctioned six months’ liquidity coverage rule, which ensures that, at any time, a dedicated ledger of the Transaction Account (held with Citibank or an eligible institution) is credited with sufficient cash to cover six months of interest and senior costs;
(3) The conditional pass-through nature of the structure whereby the series that have not been repaid on their expected maturity date become pass-through with (a) the maturity extended to a date that in DBRS’s stressed simulations allows all loans in the CP to amortise fully and related recoveries to be collected and (b) proceeds from the CP allocated pro rata and pari passu to the series of GCB that are pass-through;
(4) The role of the Central Bank of Greece in the supervision of the Greek CBs.

For more information, please refer to the DBRS commentary “Greek Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review” on www.dbrs.com.

The rating is provisional, pending receipt of the final draft of amendment deed incorporating DBRS’s rating criteria.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is “Rating European Covered Bonds”.

DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: http://dbrs.com/research/319564/rating-sovereign-governments.pdf.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include loan-by-loan data template provided by the issuer and including, among other things, payment history of each loan.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first DBRS rating on this financial instrument.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Vito Natale, Senior Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Quincy Tang, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 27 August 2018

DBRS Ratings Limited
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Registered in England and Wales: No. 7139960

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- European RMBS Insight Methodology
-- European RMBS Insight: Greek Addendum
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Transactions
-- Rating Sovereign Governments

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.