DBRS Upgrades Rating on Vela Consumer 2 S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) upgraded the rating on the Class A Asset Backed Fixed Rate Notes (the Class A Notes) issued by Vela Consumer 2 S.r.l. (the Issuer) to AA (low) (sf) from A (high) (sf).

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

The upgrade follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults and losses.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at the AA (low) (sf) rating level.

Vela Consumer 2 S.r.l. is a securitisation of unsecured consumer loan receivables granted by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro S.p.A. (BNL) to individual borrowers in Italy. BNL also acts as the servicer for the transaction.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of October 2018, loans that were two- to three-months in arrears represented 0.1% of the outstanding portfolio balance, the 90+ delinquency ratio was 0.3% and the cumulative default ratio was 0.4%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
DBRS conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has maintained its base case PD and LGD assumptions at 12.3% and 91.0%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the October 2018 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 29.1%, up from 20.4% at the DBRS initial rating. Credit enhancement is provided by subordination of the Class J Notes and a Cash Reserve.

The transaction benefits from a Cash Reserve of EUR 9.5 million that is available to cover senior fees and Class A Notes’ interest and principal (via the principal deficiency ledger). The transaction also has an Interest Reserve of EUR 2.0 million available to cover senior fees and Class A Notes’ interest.

BNL acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the rating of BNL at “A”, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants, DBRS considers the risk arising from the exposure to BNL to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology”.

DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: http://dbrs.com/research/333487/rating-sovereign-governments.pdf.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A. and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis. At the time of the initial rating, DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first rating action on this transaction since the initial rating date on 6 December 2017.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the “Base Case”):

-- DBRS expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 12.3% and 91.0%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (low) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (low) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BB (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS historic default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (“ESMA”) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Andrew Lynch, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 6 December 2017

DBRS Ratings Limited
20 Fenchurch Street
31st Floor
London
EC3M 3BY
United Kingdom
Registered in England and Wales: No. 7139960.

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.