DBRS Takes Rating Actions on Provisional Ratings of Colonnade Global 2016-1

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) took the following rating actions on its provisional ratings on ten tranches issued by Colonnade Global 2016-1 (the Issuer):

-- USD 4,707,777,778 Tranche A confirmed at AAA (sf)
-- USD 68,333,333 Tranche B confirmed at AA (high) (sf)
-- USD 28,333,333 Tranche C upgraded to AA (high) (sf) from AA (sf)
-- USD 31,111,111 Tranche D upgraded to AA (sf) from AA (low) (sf)
-- USD 58,333,333 Tranche E upgraded to AA (low) (sf) from A (high) (sf)
-- USD 15,555,556 Tranche F upgraded to A (high) (sf) from A (sf)
-- USD 43,333,333 Tranche G upgraded to A (sf) from A (low) (sf)
-- USD 63,888,889 Tranche H confirmed at BBB (high) (sf)
-- USD 17,777,778 Tranche I upgraded to BBB (high) (sf) from BBB (sf)
-- USD 21,111,111 Tranche J upgraded to BBB (sf) from BBB (low) (sf)

The ratings are expected to remain provisional until the moment the underlying agreements are executed; however, it is important to note that the Originator, Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays), may have no intention of executing the senior guarantee. DBRS will maintain and monitor the provisional ratings throughout the life of the transaction or while it continues to receive performance information.

The ratings address the likelihood of a reduction in the respective tranche notional amounts resulting from borrower defaults in the guaranteed portfolio of the notional loan portfolio financial guarantee within the eight-year credit protection period. The borrower default events are limited to failure to pay, bankruptcy and restructuring events.

The ratings take into consideration only the creditworthiness of the reference portfolio. The ratings do not address counterparty risk or the likelihood of any event of default or termination events under the agreement.

The transaction is a synthetic balance-sheet collateralised loan obligation structured in the form of a financial guarantee. The loans were originated or purchased by Barclays’ Corporate Banking Large Corporate division over its regular course of business.

Barclays bought protection under a similar financial guarantee for the first-loss piece, but has not executed contracts related to the rated tranches. Under the unexecuted guarantee agreement, Barclays will transfer the remaining credit risk (from 9% to 100%) of the same USD 5.6 billion portfolio.

The rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction. The reduction in the weighted-average (WA) life, along with no observed defaults, prompted the rating upgrades and confirmations.

Based on the investor report, as of November 2018, there were no cumulative defaults and the credit enhancement levels for each tranche remains the same as at closing.

The transaction has a one-year replenishment period left, during which time Barclays can add new reference obligations or increase the notional amount of existing reference obligations. The replenishment period will follow rules-based selection guidelines designed to ensure that new reference obligations are not adversely selected. In addition, the new reference obligations also need to comply with eligibility criteria and portfolio profile tests, which are established to ensure that the credit quality of new reference obligations proposed are similar or better than that of the reference obligations they replace.

The credit facilities under the reference portfolio can be drawn in various currencies, but any negative impact from currency movements is neutralised; therefore, movements in the foreign-exchange rate should not have a negative impact on the rated tranches.

However, each reference obligation can reference a broad number of interest-rate indices around the world. The interest-rate index, spread and interest payment frequency will determine the amount of additional risk that the guarantee must cover. To address this risk, DBRS calculated stressed interest rates based on its “Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology as well as the spread and WA payment frequency covenants defined as part of the transaction’s portfolio profile tests.

For the recovery rate, DBRS applied the senior-secured and senior-unsecured recovery rates defined in its “Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit” methodology. The portfolio can reference obligations from obligors based in Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland or the United States. DBRS applies different recovery rates depending on the recovery tier and seniority. All the eligible borrowers will be based in countries with a DBRS recovery Tier 1 (higher recovery) to recovery Tier 4 (lower recovery), except for Hungary as it does not have a defined recovery tier in the methodology; however, considering the nature of the loans, DBRS considers Hungary to be a recovery Tier 4 country for the purpose of this transaction.

For the recovery rate, DBRS assumed all reference obligations to be senior unsecured and applied the recovery rates defined in its “Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit” methodology, adjusted as per the analysis above.

The portfolio WA recovery rate was calculated based on the worst-case concentration allowed under the portfolio profile tests and adjusted as per the analysis above.

DBRS used the CLO Asset Model to determine expected default rates for the portfolio at each rating level. To determine the credit risk of each underlying reference obligation, DBRS relied on either public ratings or a ratings mapping to DBRS ratings on Barclays’ internal ratings models. The mapping was completed in accordance with DBRS’s “Mapping Financial Institution Internal Ratings to DBRS Ratings for Global Structured Credit Transactions” methodology.

The eligibility criteria exclude obligations that are (1) subordinated, defined as either (2) project finance or (3) structured finance, (4) currently in credit watch, (5) in default or (6) in arrears in the previous 12 months. The maximum borrower group concentration allowed is 1.5% for borrower groups with the better internal rating score, with lower single-borrower concentration limits for borrowers groups with lower internal rating scores.

Notes:
All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: “Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit”.

DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of any other transaction’s legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/333487/rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include the Arranger and Beneficiary: Barclays Bank PLC.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS was not supplied with third party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 28 December 2017 when DBRS confirmed the provisional ratings previously assigned to the ten tranches.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available at www.dbrs.com

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to determine the rating (the “Base Case”):

-- Correlation assumption Used: Base Case Correlation (15% intra-industry and 6% inter-industry), a 20% and 40% increase on the base case correlation parameters.
-- Recovery Rates Used: Base Case Recovery Rate (ranging between 24.3% and 33.6% at the AAA (sf) to BB (high) (sf) stress level), a 10% and 20% decrease in the Base Case Recovery Rate. Note that the percentage decreases in the recovery rates are assumed for the other stress recovery rate levels.

DBRS concludes that a hypothetical increase of the base case correlation by 40% or a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 20%, ceteris paribus, could each lead to a downgrade of the rated tranches by up to three notches. A scenario combining both an increase in the correlation by 20% and a decrease in the Recovery Rate by 10% could lead to a downgrade of the rated tranches by up to two notches.

For further information on DBRS historic default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (“ESMA”) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Francesco Amato, Financial Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Vito Natale, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 29 December 2016

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies

-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit
-- Mapping Financial Institution Internal Ratings to DBRS Ratings for Global Structured Credit Transactions
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators

A description of how DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.