DBRS Morningstar: "Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: June Update"

DBRS Morningstar released a commentary titled “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: June Update”. On April 16, 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a set of macroeconomic scenarios for select economies. This commentary provides an update on how our scenarios and views regarding the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) shock are evolving. In addition, we have added several Nordic countries to the scenarios.

Relative to our April 16 scenarios, our updated moderate scenario reflects recent data releases and assumes a recovery takes somewhat longer. This implies lower GDP growth for 2020, higher GDP growth for 2021, and higher unemployment in 2020 carrying through to 2021. Our adverse scenario has also been revised to incorporate a sharper contraction in 2020, with little or no compensating upward adjustments to growth in 2021-22.

“Although we are seeing many advanced countries successfully ‘bend the curve,’ recent economic data has broadly confirmed our fears regarding the severity of the downturn during the first half of 2020.” said Thomas Torgerson, Co-Head of Sovereign Ratings for DBRS Morningstar. “Renewed outbreaks could ultimately result in double-dip recessions, with increasingly widespread credit stresses and more lasting effects on potential output and productivity.”

As before, the scenarios remain subject to change and will be updated again by July or early August. Neither scenario is intended to be used as a forecast, but the moderate scenario continues to serve as the primary anchor for current DBRS Morningstar ratings, and the adverse scenario serves as a benchmark for sensitivity analysis.

Notes:
The commentary is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For more information on the impact of coronavirus on DBRS Morningstar ratings, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

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