DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on FT RMBS Prado VI

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its ratings on the bonds issued by FT RMBS Prado VI (the Issuer) as follows:

-- Class A at AAA (sf)
-- Class B at A (sf)

The rating of the Class A notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal by the final legal maturity date in March 2055. The rating of the Class B notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal by the final legal maturity date.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the June 2020 payment date.
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The Issuer is a securitisation of Spanish first-lien residential mortgage loans originated and serviced by Unión de Créditos Inmobiliarios, E.F.C. (UCI). The transaction closed in June 2018.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of June 2020, loans two to three months in arrears represented 0.14% of the outstanding portfolio balance, up from 0.02% in June 2019. Loans in arrears more than 90 days represented 0.27%, up from 0.14% in the same period, while the cumulative default ratio remained at 0.02%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis on the portfolio of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 8.3% and 26.7%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the June 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A notes increased to 20.4%, up from 19.0% year ago. The credit enhancement to the Class B notes increased to 9.1%, up from 8.5% in the same period.

The reserve fund provides liquidity support to the rated notes. It can amortise to 2.25% of the outstanding balance of the assets with a floor at 1.00% of the outstanding balance of the assets. The reserve fund was at its target level of EUR 8.5 million as of June 2020.

Banco Santander S.A. (Santander) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on Santander’s reference rating of A (high), which is one notch below DBRS Morningstar’s Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of AA (low), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to Class A notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

Santander acts also as the Interest Rate Swap Counterparty for this transaction. DBRS Morningstar’s COR of AA (low) is above the first rating threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers and incorporated a moderate reduction in residential property values.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group published its outlook on the impact to key economic indicators for the 2020-22 time frame. These scenarios were updated on 1 June 2020. For details see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361867/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. DBRS Morningstar’s analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details please see https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include transaction reports provided by Santander de Titulización, SGFT, S.A., and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 12 July 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the rating of the Class A notes at AAA (sf) and upgraded the rating of the Class B notes to A (sf) from BBB (high) (sf).

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 8.3% and 26.7%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf).

Class A notes Risk Sensitivity: -- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf) -- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf) -- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

Class B notes Risk Sensitivity: -- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf) -- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf) -- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf) -- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf) -- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf) -- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Shalva Beshia, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 14 June 2018

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions

-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers

-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (10 October 2019)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/351557/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions

-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (26 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350907/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions

-- European RMBS Insight Methodology (2 April 2020) and European RMBS Insight Model 4.2.2.0.,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359192/european-rmbs-insight-methodology

-- European RMBS Insight: Spanish Addendum (10 July 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/347838/european-rmbs-insight-spanish-addendum

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].