Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms and Upgrades Ratings on Gemgarto 2018-1 PLC

RMBS

July 30, 2020

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) took the following rating actions on the bonds issued by Gemgarto 2018-1 PLC (the Issuer):

-- Class A Notes confirmed at AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes confirmed at AA (sf)
-- Class C Notes upgraded to AA (low) (sf) from A (high) (sf)
-- Class D Notes upgraded to A (sf) from A (low) (sf)
-- Class E Notes confirmed at BB (high) (sf)
-- Class X Notes upgraded to CCC (sf) from C (sf)

The ratings on the Class A Notes, Class B Notes, Class C Notes, Class D Notes, and Class E Notes address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date. The rating on the Class X Notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

The rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the June 2020 payment date.
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
-- No revolving termination events have occurred.

The transaction is a securitisation of UK first-ranking owner-occupied residential mortgages originated and serviced by Kensington Mortgage Company Limited (KMC). The transaction is currently in its four-year replenishment period, which is scheduled to end on the payment date in September 2022. During the replenishment period, principal funds are first allocated toward the amortisation of the Class A Notes to the target notional amount before applying any remaining principal funds to purchase additional loans. The end of the replenishment period also coincides with a step-up in the margin of the Class A to E notes. The transaction legal maturity date is on the payment date in September 2065.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the June 2020 payment date, two- to three-month arrears represented 0.8% of the outstanding portfolio balance, up from 0.1% a year ago. As of the June 2020 payment date, the 90+ delinquency ratio was 0.6%, up from 0.2% in June 2019. As of the June 2020 payment date, the cumulative loss ratio was 0.0%. As of the June 2020 payment date, 35.3% of the outstanding portfolio balance has been granted principal payment holidays. The principal payment holiday period varies between one and three months. The majority of the loans (78.7%) have a short-term fixed rate period which will switch to three-month GBP Libor. 42.1% of the loans were granted to self-employed borrowers and 10.6% have prior county court judgments. The loan portfolio consists of 14.4% Help to Buy loans. DBRS Morningstar incorporated these adverse features into its analysis.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar has analysed a stressed collateral portfolio to represent potential deterioration in the characteristics that can impact the transaction, subject to portfolio-wide covenants. DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 7.4% and 15.9% from 9.0% and 15.7%, respectively, at the last annual review. DBRS Morningstar assumptions incorporate adjustments resulting from the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). The decrease in the base case PD assumption is driven by the revised opinion on the portfolio quality to “Good” from “Moderate” regarding the KMC portfolio.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The credit enhancement consists of subordination of junior notes from Class B to Class F notes, excluding Class X and Z notes, and a General Reserve Fund (GRF).

The credit enhancement (CE) has increased since a year ago as follows:
--CE to the Class A increased to 19.7% from 18.6%
--CE to the Class B increased to 14.2% from 13.5%
--CE to the Class C increased to 11.5% from 10.9%
--CE to the Class D increased to 9.3% from 8.8%
--CE to the Class E increased to 5.5% from 5.2%

The increase in the credit enhancement is due to the repayment of the Class A Notes, as per the target notional schedule during the replenishment period.

The GRF is nonamortising and available to cover senior fees and senior swap payments as well as interest and principal losses via the principal deficiency ledgers, on the Class A to Class E notes. The GRF is currently funded to its target level of GBP 5 million, equal to 2% of the initial Class A to Class F notes.

If the GRF balance falls below 1.5% of the outstanding Class A to F notes, a Liquidity Reserve Fund (LRF) will be funded through available principal funds to 2% of the outstanding Class A and Class B notes balance. The LRF will be available to cover senior fees, senior swap payments and interest on the Class A and Class B notes.

Citibank N.A./London Branch acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar private rating of Citibank N.A./London Branch, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

BNP Paribas London Branch acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's private rating of BNP Paribas London Branch is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers, incorporated a moderate reduction in residential property values and conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays or payment moratoriums in the portfolio.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released on 16 April 2020 a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 22 July 2020. For details see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364318/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-july-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.
DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details please see https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in British pound sterling unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by Citibank N.A./London Branch, and loan-level data provided by Kensington Mortgage Company Ltd.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 30 July 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the ratings of the Class A Notes, Class B Notes, Class C Notes, Class D Notes, Class E Notes, and Class X Notes.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Natalia Coman.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 7.4% and 15.9%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)

Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)

Class E Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (sf)

Class X Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of CCC (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of CCC (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of CCC (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of CCC (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of CCC (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of CCC (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of CCC (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of CCC (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Natalia Coman, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 12 July 2018

DBRS Ratings Limited
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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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