Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Fucino RMBS S.r.l. and Removes UR-Neg. Status

RMBS

February 18, 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its ratings on the Class A and Class B Notes issued by Fucino RMBS S.r.l. (the Issuer) at AA (low) (sf) and A (low) (sf), respectively.

The Under Review with Negative Implications (UR-Neg.) status on which the notes were placed on 21 December 2020 was removed.

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal by the final maturity date. The rating on the Class B Notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal by the final maturity date.
The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the December 2020 payment date;
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic;
-- Release of DBRS Morningstar’s “European RMBS Insight: Italian Addendum” and corresponding European RMBS Insight Model. For more information, see this press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/371598/dbrs-morningstar-publishes-final-european-rmbs-insight-italian-addendum.

Fucino RMBS S.r.l. is a securitisation of residential mortgage loans granted by Banca del Fucino S.p.A. (Banca del Fucino) to individuals and families residing in Italy. Banca del Fucino services the portfolio, with Centotrenta Servicing S.p.A. acting as backup servicer. The portfolio shows a notable concentration in central Italy, especially in the regions of Lazio and Abruzzo. Class B Notes are entirely subordinated to Class A Notes, with respect to both principal and interest payments.
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

As of the November 2020 cut-off, delinquencies were low, with no loans that were two to three months in arrears. The 90+ delinquency ratio was 0.4%, slightly up from 0.2% at the November 2019 cut-off. The servicer has not reported any defaulted loan so far, while cumulative repurchases as stood at 6.9% of the portfolio initial balance, within the cumulative limit as per transaction documents.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS

DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 10.8% and 11.9%, respectively, compared with 6.8% and 7.2%, respectively, as of April 2020 (at the time of the latest annual review). The higher PD and LGD assumptions are the result of the updated “European RMBS Insight: Italian Addendum” and corresponding European RMBS Insight Model.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT

Overcollateralisation of the outstanding collateral portfolio provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. As of the December 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A and Class B Notes was 23.6% and 18.1%, respectively, up from 18.6% and 13.8%, respectively, as of the March 2020 payment date. The increase in credit enhancement prompted the confirmation of the ratings and the removal of the UR-Neg. status.

The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve, which provides liquidity support and is available to cover senior fees, swap payments, and interest payments on the Class A Notes only. The reserve is currently at its target level of EUR 3.3 million, or 3.5% of the outstanding balance of the rated notes. The reserve is floored at 1.0% of the rated notes initial balance.

BNP Paribas Securities Services, Milan Branch acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the private rating of the account bank, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Three swap transactions are in place: two to hedge the basis risk, and one to hedge the fixed-floating interest rate risk. J.P. Morgan AG acts as the swap counterparty. DBRS Morningstar has only given limited credit to the fixed-floating swap, as the swap documentation is not entirely consistent with DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers and assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices. In addition, DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio. As of the November 2020 cut-off, the number of borrowers currently in payment holidays was negligible.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 28 January 2021. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/372842/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-january-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus is likely to affect the DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:

All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2021).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by Centotrenta Servicing S.p.A., servicer reports and additional information provided by Banca del Fucino, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 21 December 2020, when DBRS Morningstar placed UR-Neg. its AA (low) (sf) and A (low) (sf) ratings on the Class A and Class B Notes, respectively. Prior to that, on 15 April 2020, DBRS Morningstar confirmed its ratings on the Class A and Class B Notes at AA (low) (sf) and A (low) (sf), respectively.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 10.8% and 11.9%, respectively.

-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. Taking the Class A Notes as example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml

DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Daniele Canestrari, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 15 April 2019

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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