DBRS Morningstar Confirms the European Financial Stability Facility at AAA, Stable Trend

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the European Financial Stability Facility’s (EFSF) Long-Term Issuer Rating at AAA and Short-Term Issuer Rating at R-1 (high). The trend on both ratings is Stable.

KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS
The ratings depend entirely on the EFSF’s Support Assessment. This assessment is at a level equivalent to AAA and reflects (1) the unconditional and irrevocable guarantees and over-guarantees provided by Euro area member states as stipulated by the EFSF Framework Agreement; (2) the creditworthiness of the EFSF guarantors; and (3) the strong commitment of the member states to support the institution.

RATING DRIVERS
The ratings could be downgraded if one or a combination of the following occur: (1) there is a marked deterioration in the creditworthiness of a single core guarantor, particularly if it reflects a material weakening of the cohesion of core member states or of the strength of their political commitment to the Monetary Union; or (2) although unlikely given their Stable trend, France (AA (high), Stable) or Germany (AAA, Stable) are downgraded.

RATING RATIONALE

The Core Guarantors’ Commitment to the EFSF Continues to Drive the Ratings

DBRS Morningstar does not provide a full Intrinsic Assessment of the EFSF, given its financial structure that is based on guarantees and over-guarantees. DBRS Morningstar defines the EFSF's core guarantor group as the Federal Republic of Germany (AAA, Stable), the Republic of France (AA (high), Stable), the Republic of Italy (BBB (high), Stable) and the Kingdom of Spain (A, Stable). These four guarantors are the largest by guarantee size, each representing more than 10% of the EFSF contribution key on an individual basis and accounting cumulatively for 83% of the overall guarantor pool.

The weighted median guarantor rating of this group, which is the primary driver of the Support Assessment, currently stands at AA (high), in line with France's rating. Despite the AA (high) weighted median guarantor rating, DBRS Morningstar considers that the EFSF's Support Assessment remains at AAA. The EFSF's Support Assessment remains underpinned by the strong commitment of the Euro area member states towards the institution and by additional diversification benefits stemming from AAA governments outside the core group.
The EFSF ratings rely primarily on the guarantees provided by Euro area member states, given the very low amount of paid-in capital. Proceeds from loan repayments are used to meet the EFSF's debt obligations. In the event of default by a beneficiary member state, the shortfall would be covered by the guarantees and credit enhancement measures provided by member states. The over-guarantee structure backing the EFSF's obligations (with maximum over-guarantees of 165% by each guarantor) provides additional support to the ratings through its core guarantors.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Has Significantly Affected European Economies but the Recovery is Ongoing

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the restrictive mobility and contact measures taken to limit the spread of the virus have severely affected European economies. As a result, in 2020, the Euro area gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 6.4%. In 2021, the economic recovery started to materialise, supported by governments' fiscal measures, pent-up demand, and the steady vaccination rollout throughout Europe. The European Commission expects the area's GDP to have rebounded by 5.0% in 2021 (Autumn 2021 forecasts), and this growth to remain steady in 2022 with a 4.3% GDP increase. Over the medium-term, the full extent of the economic impact on European economies will continue to remain intrinsically linked to the healthcare situation and the potential spread of new variants. The recent spread of the variant Omicron, while it adds uncertainty over the short-term, is not expected to significantly derail current growth forecasts.

DBRS Morningstar continues to consider that the emergency measures announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) and by the European Union (EU, AAA, Stable) to support the Euro area and more broadly the European economies are positive and signal further cohesion among member states. Over the next two-to-three years, DBRS Morningstar will focus its analysis on the potential divergences while exiting the COVID-19 pandemic in economic, fiscal and debt positions across European countries. Perceptions of greater divergences may give rise to further Euroscepticism and could bring new challenges to additional European integration.

The EFSF’s Mandate and Commitment from Member States Remain Very Strong

The EFSF has been an integral part of a broader policy response to the Euro area sovereign debt crisis about a decade ago, and an illustration of the commitment of member states to preserve the Monetary Union. Given the importance of the mandate of the EFSF, DBRS Morningstar continues to believe that its guarantors are highly likely to meet their obligations and provide support to the institution in a stress scenario. While the EFSF's mandate has not been affected by the coronavirus pandemic, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM, AAA, Stable), which took over its role of providing financial assistance in the Euro area at the end of 2012, has been part of the EU response package to the pandemic. In DBRS Morningstar's view, this confirms the key role of both institutions as well as the commitment of their member states to support them if needed.

The High Concentration in the Loan Portfolio is Inherent to the EFSF’s Missions

The EFSF’s loan portfolio is characterised by a high degree of concentration and relatively weak asset quality. Loans totaling EUR 172.6 billion remain outstanding to the Hellenic Republic (Greece, BB, Positive), the Republic of Portugal (BBB (high), Stable) and the Republic of Ireland (AA (low), Stable). Of this amount, EUR 130.9 billion (76%) is concentrated on Greece. Nevertheless, the relatively elevated credit risk related to this exposure does not call into question the commitment of the Euro area member states to honour their EFSF guarantees. In addition, the European Commission continued to acknowledge in its enhanced surveillance report published in November 2021 Greece's progress with reform implementation. This report's findings have been shared by the EFSF/ESM which should lead to the release of the sixth tranche of policy contingent medium-term debt relief measures for Greece, as agreed at the end of 2018.

DBRS Morningstar also views positively the high degree of integration between the EFSF and the ESM. Both institutions operate under the same management and benefit from the same early warning system, which allows the EFSF/ESM’s teams to oversee debt repayments and would allow the institutions to take swift action, if it became ever necessary.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

RATING COMMITTEE SUMMARY

The main points discussed during the Rating Committee include the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the EFSF’s guarantors cohesion and commitment to the institution, the EFSF’s risk profile.

Notes:
All figures are in euros (EUR) unless otherwise noted. Public finance statistics reported on a general government basis unless specified.

The principal methodology is the Global Methodology for Rating Supranational Institutions (3 March 2021) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/374737/global-methodology-for-rating-supranational-institutions. Other applicable methodologies include the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

The sources of information used for this rating include the EFSF’s 2020 financial statements, the EFSF and ESM Investor Presentation (December 2021), the ESM 2020 annual report, the EFSF and ESM 2020 carbon footprint report, the European Commission Autumn 2021 forecasts. DBRS Morningstar considers the information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

With respect to FCA and ESMA regulations in the United Kingdom and European Union, respectively, this is an unsolicited credit rating. This credit rating was not initiated at the request of the issuer.

With Rated Entity or Related Third Party Participation: NO
With Access to Internal Documents: NO
With Access to Management: NO

DBRS Morningstar does not audit the information it receives in connection with the rating process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that information in every instance.

Generally, the conditions that lead to the assignment of a Negative or Positive trend are resolved within a 12-month period. DBRS Morningstar’s outlooks and ratings are under regular surveillance.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

The sensitivity analysis of the relevant key rating assumptions can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/391060.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Nicolas Fintzel, Senior Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings
Rating Committee Chair: Nichola James, Managing Director, Co-Head of Global Sovereign Ratings
Initial Rating Date: July 27, 2012
Last Rating Date: July 23, 2021

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