Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Upgrades Rating on BBVA Leasing 2, F.T.

Consumer/Commercial Leases

July 07, 2022

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded its rating on the Series A Notes issued by BBVA Leasing 2, F.T. (the Issuer) to AA (high) (sf) from AA (low) (sf).

The rating on the Series A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the final maturity date in November 2043.

The upgrade follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the May 2022 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Series A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AA (high) (sf) rating level.

The transaction is a static securitisation established in July 2020 and backed by commercial leases granted mostly to corporates and small and medium-size enterprises originated and serviced by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) in Spain.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the May 2022 payment date, leases that were 30 to 60 days and 60 to 90 days delinquent both represented 0.1% of the outstanding portfolio balance while leases more than 90 days delinquent represented 0.2%. Gross cumulative defaults represented 0.1% of the initial collateral balance.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a lease-by-lease analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 7.5% and 78.5%, respectively, based on the current portfolio composition.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the junior notes and the reserve fund provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. As of the May 2022 payment date, credit enhancement to the Series A Notes was 46.3%, up from 30.2% at the last annual review. The increase in credit enhancement prompted the rating upgrade.

The transaction benefits from a reserve fund that was funded to EUR 105.0 million at closing through the proceeds of a subordinated loan and can provide liquidity and credit support to the Series A Notes. Once the Series A Notes have been redeemed in full, the reserve fund will also provide liquidity and credit support for Loan B. In the first two years since closing, the reserve fund did not amortise; after this period, it gets released with the amortisation of the notes, but has to be maintained at the minimum of the initial amount (EUR 105 million) and the higher of (1) 10% of the outstanding amount of the Series A Notes and Loan B and (2) EUR 52.5 million. The cash reserve is currently at its target level of EUR 105.0 million.

BBVA acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of A (high) on BBVA (which is one notch below the DBRS Morningstar Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA (low)), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Series A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures had caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many financial lease receivable transactions. The rating is based on additional analysis and, where appropriate, adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate granted to obligors operating in certain industries based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions of the coronavirus. As per DBRS Morningstar’s assessment, 7.4% of the outstanding portfolio balance belonged to industries classified in high-risk economic sectors, which leads to the underlying one-year PDs to be multiplied by 1.5 times (x), as per the commentary mentioned below. In addition, DBRS Morningstar conducted an additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potentially high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 29 June 2022. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/399022/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns-june-2022-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

On 10 February 2022, DBRS Morningstar updated its 18 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) crisis on the performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated structured credit transactions in Europe almost two years on. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/392167/two-years-into-covid-19-risks-to-european-structured-credit-transactions and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361098/european-structured-credit-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (19 May 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by Europea de Titulización, S.A., S.G.F.T., the management company, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 12 July 2021, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its rating on the Series A Notes at AA (low) (sf).

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Preben Cornelius Overas.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 7.5% and 78.5%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Series A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Series A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Series A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (high) (sf).

Series A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 23 July 2020

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
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Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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