DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Brera SEC S.r.l. and Brera SEC2 S.r.l

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its A (high) (sf) ratings on the respective Class A notes (collectively, the rated notes) issued by Brera SEC S.r.l. (Brera 1) and Brera SEC2 S.r.l (Brera 2).

The ratings on the rated notes address the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the respective legal final maturity dates in November 2071 (Brera 1) and December 2072 (Brera 2).

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transactions and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the August 2022 and September 2022 payment dates for Brera 1 and Brera 2, respectively;
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses assumed at the A (high) (sf) rating level.

The transactions are static securitisations of Italian first-lien residential mortgage loans originated, sold, and serviced by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (ISP) and other subsidiaries of the group (Banco di Napoli S.p.A., Cassa di Risparmio in Bologna S.p.A., Cassa di Risparmio del Friuli Venezia Giulia S.p.A., and Cassa dei Risparmi di Forli' e della Romagna S.p.A.) now incorporated into ISP. The Brera 1 and Brera 2 transactions closed in December 2017 and November 2019, respectively, and both follow the standard structure under Italian securitisation law.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
-- Brera 1: As of the August 2022 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months delinquent represented 0.02% and 0.1% of the portfolio balance, respectively, while loans more than three months delinquent represented 0.2%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.7% of the original collateral balance, of which 13.0% has been recovered so far.

-- Brera 2: As of the September 2022 payment date, loans that were one to two months, two to three months, and more than three months delinquent all represented 0.1% of the portfolio balance. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.1% of the original collateral balance, of which 6.2% has been recovered so far.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions as follows:
-- For Brera 1, the base case PD and LGD assumptions were updated to 9.5% and 12.3%, respectively.
-- For Brera 2, the base case PD and LGD assumptions were updated to 12.1% and 10.9%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective unrated Class B notes provides credit enhancement to the Class A notes in each transaction. Credit enhancement to the Class A notes in Brera 1 was 26.6% as of the August 2022 payment date, up from 24.1% one year ago, while credit enhancement to the Class A notes in Brera 2 was 17.4% as of the September 2022 payment date, up from 16.0% as of the September 2021 payment date.

Both transactions benefit from an amortising liquidity reserve, which is available to provide support to the rated notes throughout the life of the transaction by covering senior fees and shortfall in interest payments (and principal at the final maturity date or the redemption date). For Brera 1, the liquidity reserve is replenished up to 2.5% of the principal outstanding amount of the Class A notes at the previous calculation date. The reserve is currently at its target level of EUR 80.0 million and has been at its target since closing. For Brera 2, the liquidity reserve is replenished up to 2.0% of the principal outstanding amount of the Class A notes at the previous calculation date. The reserve is currently at its target level of EUR 97.8 million and has also been at its target since closing.

ISP acts as the account bank for both transactions. Based on the account bank reference rating of ISP at A (low) (one notch below the DBRS Morningstar Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating of “A”), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structures, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the rated notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant impact on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929 (17 May 2022).

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structures in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (19 May 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in these transactions are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transactions in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transactions legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A., servicer reports provided by ISP, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on these transactions took place on:
-- For Brera 1: 9 November 2021, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its A (high) (sf) rating on the Class A notes.
-- For Brera 2: 9 November 2021, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its A (high) (sf) rating on the Class A notes.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transactions parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- For Brera 1, the base case PD and LGD assumptions for the remaining collateral pool are 9.5% and 12.3%, respectively.
-- For Brera 2, the base case PD and LGD assumptions for the remaining collateral pool are 12.1% and 10.9%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes in Brera 1 would be expected to remain at A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to remain at A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would also be expected to remain at A (high) (sf).

Brera 1 Class A Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

Brera 2 Class A Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Brera 1 Initial Rating Date: 11 December 2017
Brera 2 Initial Rating Date: 27 November 2019

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of these transactions can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (19 May 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/397033/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology (28 March 2022) European RMBS Insight Model v5.7.0.1,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/394309/european-rmbs-insight-methodology.
-- European RMBS Insight: Italian Addendum (29 September 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/403237/european-rmbs-insight-italian-addendum.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 July 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/400166/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402774/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402943/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (17 May 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].