DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Cars Alliance Auto Loans France V 2022-1

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA (sf) and AA (low) (sf) ratings on the Class A and Class B Notes (collectively, the Notes), respectively, issued by Cars Alliance Auto Loans France V 2022-1 (the Issuer).

The ratings address the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in November 2032.

The rating confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the April 2023 payment date.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels.
-- No Revolving Period Termination Events have occurred.

The Issuer is a securitisation collateralised by a pool of loan receivables granted by Diac SA (Diac) predominantly to private individuals and commercial clients in France for the purchase of new or used vehicles in France. Diac also services the receivables. The transaction closed in May 2022 and includes an 18-month revolving period, which is scheduled to end in November 2023. During the revolving period, the originator may offer additional receivables that the Issuer will purchase, provided that the eligibility criteria and concentration limits set out in the transaction documents are satisfied. The revolving period may end earlier than scheduled if certain events occur, such as the breach of performance triggers, insolvency of the originator, or replacement of the servicer.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of April 2023, loans that were one to two months and two to three months in arrears represented 0.5% and 0.2% of the outstanding portfolio balance, respectively. The gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.7% of the aggregate initial portfolio balance, with cumulative recoveries of 43.1% to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 3.4% and 55.2%, respectively. Given the revolving period, the assumptions continue to be based on the potential portfolio migration and the replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

DBRS Morningstar opted to elect mid-range core multiples. The inclusion of incremental balloon stresses means the derived adjusted multiple is above the higher range used at the AAA (sf) rating level.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior notes provides credit enhancement to the Notes. As of the April 2023 payment date, subordination to the Class A and Class B Notes remained stable at 13.0% and 6.0%, respectively, due to the inclusion of the revolving period.

The transaction benefits from an amortising general reserve account, which is available to cover senior expenses and interest payments on the rated notes. This account was funded at closing with EUR 5.3 million, and its target balance is equal to 0.75% of the aggregate principal balance of the Notes. Since closing, it has been at its target balance of EUR 5.3 million.

BNP Paribas SA (following the merger of BNP Paribas Securities Services into BNP Paribas, which took place on 1 October 2022) is the account bank for the transaction. Based on the reference rating of BNP Paribas SA at AA, which is one notch below its DBRS Morningstar Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA (high), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to BNP Paribas SA to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar’s "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

The Issuer entered into a Swap Agreement with Diac to hedge the interest rate mismatch between the Notes, indexed to one-month Euribor, and the fixed interest rate payments from the collateral portfolio. The structure also includes a Stand-By Swap, where Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank (CACIB) provides a financial and operational guarantee to Diac; if Diac fails to meet its obligations as a Swap Counterparty, CACIB will step in to hedge the Issuer’s exposure. The Stand-By Swap Agreement defines downgrade provisions consistent with DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the “DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted. Due to the inclusion of a revolving period in the transaction, the analysis continues to consider potential portfolio migration based on replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by Eurotitrisation and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 24 May 2022, when DBRS Morningstar finalised its provisional ratings of AAA (sf) and AA (low) (sf) on the Class A and Class B Notes, respectively.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Preben Cornelius Overas.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 3.4% and 55.2%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would also be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 21 April 2022

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (7 February 2023),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 July 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/400166/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (15 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402773/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402774/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (19 October 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/404212/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (15 July 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/399899/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402943/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (20 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384624/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (17 May 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].