DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Auto ABS Spanish Loans 2022-1 FT

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its ratings on the following notes issued by Auto ABS Spanish Loans 2022-1 FT (the Issuer):

-- Class A Notes confirmed at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class B Notes confirmed at A (sf)
-- Class C Notes confirmed at BBB (sf)
-- Class D Notes confirmed at BB (high) (sf)
-- Class E Notes confirmed at B (sf)

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal by the legal final maturity date in February 2032. The ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E Notes (together with the Class A Notes, the Notes) address the ultimate payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date in February 2032.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the March 2023 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Termination of the revolving period; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses and residual value (RV) loss assumed at their respective rating levels.

The transaction represents the issuance of Notes backed by a portfolio of approximately EUR 700 million fixed-rate receivables related to amortising and balloon auto loans granted by Stellantis Financial Services España, E.F.C., S.A. (formerly PSA Financial Services Spain, E.F.C., S.A.; the Originator) to private individuals in Spain for the acquisition of new or used vehicles. The Originator also services the portfolio. The Class F Notes funded the cash reserve. The transaction closed in May 2022 and included a seven-month revolving period that ended in December 2022.

Following the end of the revolving period, the Class A to Class E Notes started amortising on a pro rata basis, subject to certain subordination events. Once a sequential event is triggered, the principal repayment of the Notes will become sequential and is nonreversible until the Notes are fully redeemed. As of the March 2023 payment date, no sequential event had occurred.

The transaction has exposure to RV risk arising from the balloon loans, which have equal payment instalments during the tenure of the loan and a final large balloon instalment on the last payment date. On this date, the borrower has the option to return the vehicle instead of paying the final balloon instalment. If the proceeds of the vehicle sale are not sufficient to repay the loan in full, the borrower is released from any further repayment obligation, hence exposing the Issuer to RV risk.

In this transaction, PSAG Automoviles Comercial España SA (PSAG or the Manufacturer) mitigates the RV risk by undertaking to repurchase the vehicle at a price equal to the balloon amount. DBRS Morningstar believes that the undertaking mitigates but does not completely eliminate the Issuer’s RV risk, and its benefits are limited to the Manufacturer’s credit standing and financial strength.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the March 2023 payment date, loans that were one to two and two to three months delinquent represented 0.28% and 0.02% of the outstanding portfolio balance, respectively. Gross cumulative defaults represented 0.08% of the aggregate original and subsequent portfolios.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables. DBRS Morningstar updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 2.3% and 42.0%, respectively.

The RV loss estimates that DBRS Morningstar used were 34.4%, 28.8%, 24.1%, 13.4%, and 0.7% for the AA (low) (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), BB (high) (sf), and B (sf) scenarios, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
Credit enhancement is provided by the subordination of the junior notes and the cash reserve. As of the March 2023 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E Notes was 21.9%, 16.1%, 10.9%, 4.0% and 0.7%, respectively, slightly down from 22.0%, 16.2%, 11.0%, 4.2% and 0.8% at closing, respectively.

The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve, funded through the subscription proceeds of the Class F Notes. The cash reserve is available to cover senior costs and interest on the Notes. As of the March 2023 payment date, the cash reserve was at its target of EUR 5.3 million.

BNP Paribas S.A. Sucursal en España (BNPSE) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on BNPSE, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to BNPSE to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Banco Santander SA (Santander) acts as the interest rate swap agreement counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's Critical Obligations Rating of AA (low) on Santander is above the first rating threshold, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include transaction reports and information provided by Titulización de Activos S.G.F.T., S.A. and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating actions on this transaction took place on 31 May 2022, when DBRS Morningstar finalised its provisional ratings on Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E Notes at AA (low) (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), BB (high) (sf), and B (high) (sf), respectively.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Baran Cetin.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transactions parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD, LGD, and RV loss for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- PD used: Expected base case PD of 2.3%, and 8.6%, 7.1%, 4.6%, 3.8% and 2.7%, respectively, for AA (low) (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), BB (high) (sf), and B (sf) scenarios, on a 25% and 50% increase in the applicable PD.
-- LGD used: Expected base case LGD of 42.0%, and 60.5%, 57.4%, 52.8%, 49.7% and 43.5% respectively, for AA (low) (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), BB (high) (sf), and B (sf) scenarios, on a 25% and 50% increase in the applicable LGD.
-- RV loss used: 34.4%, 28.8%, 24.1%, 13.4% and 0.7%%, respectively, for AA (low) (sf), A (sf), BBB (sf), BB (high) (sf), and B (sf) scenarios, on a 25% and 50% increase in the applicable RV loss.

Scenario 1: A 25% increase in the expected default and LGD.
Scenario 2: A 50% increase in the expected default and LGD.
Scenario 3: A 25% increase in the RV loss.
Scenario 4: A 25% increase in the expected default and LGD and a 25% increase in the RV loss.
Scenario 5: A 50% increase in the expected default and LGD and a 25% increase in the RV loss.
Scenario 6: A 50% increase in the expected RV loss.
Scenario 7: A 25% increase in the expected default and LGD and a 50% increase in the expected RV loss.
Scenario 8: A 50% increase in the expected default and LGD and a 50% increase in the expected RV loss.

DBRS Morningstar concludes that the expected ratings under the eight stress scenarios are:
-- Class A Notes: A (high) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (sf), A (high) (sf), A (sf), and A (low) (sf), respectively.
-- Class B Notes: A (low) (sf), BBB (high) (sf), A (low) (sf), BBB (high) (sf), BBB (high) (sf), BBB (high) (sf), BBB (high) (sf), BBB (sf), respectively.
-- Class C Notes: BBB (low) (sf), BBB (low) (sf), BBB (low) (sf), BBB (low) (sf), BB (high) (sf), BBB (low) (sf), BB (high) (sf), and BB (high) (sf), respectively.
-- Class D Notes: BB (sf), BB (sf), BB (sf), BB (sf), BB (low) (sf), BB (sf), BB (low) (sf) and B (high) (sf), respectively.
-- Class E Notes: B (low) (sf) for scenario 3, no quantitative ratings are achieved for other scenarios.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Baran Cetin, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 6 May 2022

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main – Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 July 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/400166/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402774/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (15 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402773/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (22 September 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402943/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (15 July 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/399899/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (19 October 2022),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/404212/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (20 September 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384624/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (17 May 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].