DBRS Morningstar Confirms Credit Ratings on Towd Point Mortgage Funding 2018-Auburn 12 Plc

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its credit ratings on the notes issued by Towd Point Mortgage Funding 2018-Auburn 12 Plc (the Issuer):

-- Class A at AAA (sf)
-- Class B at AA (high) (sf)
-- Class C at AA (high) (sf)
-- Class D at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class E at BBB (high) (sf)

The credit rating on the Class A notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in February 2045. The credit ratings on the Class B, Class C, and Class D notes address the ultimate payment of interest and principal while they are the junior-most class of notes outstanding and the timely payment of interest while they are the senior-most class of notes outstanding. The credit rating on the Class E notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal. DBRS Morningstar’s credit ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E notes do not address interest amounts payable in excess of the transaction net weighted-average coupon cap, which are subordinated items in the revenue priority of payments.

The credit rating confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the September 2023 cut-off date;
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective credit rating levels.

The Issuer is a bankruptcy-remote special-purpose vehicle incorporated in the UK. The Issuer used the notes to fund the purchase of UK buy-to-let and owner-occupied residential mortgage loans originated by Capital Home Loans Limited (CHL). CHL acts as the servicer for the portfolio while Homeloan Management Limited acts as the backup servicer. The First Optional Redemption Date (FORD) was on the February 2023 payment date.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of September 2023 cut-off, loans two to three months in arrears represented 0.7% of the outstanding portfolio balance and the 90+-day delinquency ratio was 3.4%. As of the September 2023 cut-off date, the cumulative default ratio was 4.9%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the August 2023 payment date, the credit enhancement available to the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E notes was 35.6%, 21.1%, 14.9%, 9.4%, and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 28.6%, 17.5%, 12.7%, 8.5%, and 4.5%, 12 months prior, respectively. Credit enhancement in each case is provided by the subordination of junior classes.

Following the FORD, the transaction benefits from a liquidity reserve fund (LRF) of GBP 3.2 million, which covers the senior expenses and the interest on the Class A notes. The LRF has a required balance of 1.7% of the Class A notes and is currently funded to its target level.

Additionally, the transaction benefits from an Excess Cashflow Reserve Fund currently funded at GBP 2.9 million, which covers the interest on the Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E notes. The reserve was funded on and following the FORD, using excess amounts on the SDC Ledger after funding the LRF and any excess liquidity amounts.

HSBC Bank plc acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on HSBC Bank plc, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the credit rating assigned to the Class A notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar’s credit rating on the notes addresses the credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in accordance with the relevant transaction documents.

DBRS Morningstar’s credit rating on the notes also addresses the credit risk associated with the increased rate of interest applicable to the notes if the notes are not redeemed on the Optional Redemption Date (as defined in and) in accordance with the applicable transaction documents.

DBRS Morningstar’s credit rating does not address non-payment risk associated with contractual payment obligations contemplated in the applicable transaction documents that are not financial obligations.

DBRS Morningstar’s long-term credit ratings provide opinions on risk of default. DBRS Morningstar considers risk of default to be the risk that an issuer will fail to satisfy the financial obligations in accordance with the terms under which a long-term obligation has been issued.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the “DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416784/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in British pound sterling unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the credit ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 October 2023): https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/422281/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance credit ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/421590/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these credit ratings include investor reports provided by Capital Home Loans Limited, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial credit ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the credit rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these credit ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the credit rating process.

The last credit rating action on this transaction took place on 19 December 2022, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its credit ratings on the Class A and Class B notes at AAA (sf) and AA (high) (sf), respectively, and upgraded its credit ratings on the Class C, Class D, and Class E notes to AA (high) (sf), AA (low) (sf), and BBB (high) (sf), respectively, from AA (sf), A (sf), and BB (high) (sf), respectively. DBRS Morningstar additionally removed the Under Review with Positive Implications status of the credit ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E notes, following the finalisation of DBRS Morningstar’s “European RMBS Insight: UK Addendum” methodology.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Petter Wettestad.
Information regarding DBRS Morningstar credit ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the credit rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the credit rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer at the B (sf) credit rating level are 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the credit ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf).

Class A Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)

Class B Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)

Class C Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)

Class D Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)

Class E Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

These credit ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings GmbH for use in the European Union.

Lead Analyst: Petter Wettestad, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 23 July 2018

DBRS Ratings Limited
1 Oliver’s Yard 55-71 City Road, 2nd Floor
London EC1Y 1HQ United Kingdom
Tel. +44 (0) 20 7855 6600
Registered and incorporated under the laws of England and Wales: Company No. 7139960.

The credit rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (30 June 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416730/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 October 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/422281/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (4 July 2023),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416784/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420572/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology (27 March 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/411634/european-rmbs-insight-methodology.
-- European RMBS Insight: UK Addendum (11 August 2023) and European RMBS Insight Model v. 6.0.1.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/419141/european-rmbs-insight-uk-addendum.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (15 September 2023),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420602/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].