DBRS Confirms AA (high) Rating on Bankia Covered Bonds

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed its AA (high) ratings on the Cédulas Hipotecarias (CH, Spanish mortgage covered bonds) issued by Bankia S.A. (Bankia or the Issuer). The confirmation follows the completion of a full review of the ratings.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of “A”, being the Long-Term Critical Obligation Rating of Bankia. Bankia is the Issuer and Reference Entity for the programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of Average associated with Bankia CH.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of A (low), being the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of AA (low).
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 82% that DBRS gives credit to, being the minimum observed OC level during the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85 times.

The transaction was modelled using the DBRS European Covered Bond Cash Flow Model. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the cover pool.

Everything else being equal, a downgrade of the CBAP by one notch would lead to a downgrade of the LSF-L by two notches, resulting in a downgrade of the covered bonds’ rating by two notches. In addition, everything else being equal, the CH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following were to occur: (1) the CPCA were downgraded below A (low); (2) the sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain were downgraded below A (low); (3) the LSF assessment associated with the programme were downgraded; (4) the quality and consistency of the CP were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profile of the CH and CP were to move adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets were to cause the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

The total outstanding amount of CH is EUR 31.12 billion, while the aggregate balance of the mortgages in the cover pool is EUR 63.60 billion (as of June 2016), resulting in a total OC of 104%. The eligible CP stands at EUR 47.75 billion, resulting in eligible OC of 53%.

As of June 2016, the CP comprises 686,145 mortgage loans with an 85% residential versus 15% non-residential split and a weighted-average current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 59%. It is geographically diversified, with higher concentrations in Madrid (32.5%), Community of Valencia (16.1%) and Catalonia (14.9%). Approximately 0.69% of the pool assets were originated in a currency other than euros. The pool is 87 months seasoned.

The vast majority of the loans in the CP (approximately 99%) are floating rate, while 75% of the liabilities pay a fixed coupon. As is customary in Spanish CH, swaps are not for the benefit of the CH holders. This has been accounted for in the DBRS cash flow modelling. The weighted-average life of the assets is roughly 12 years, while that of the covered bonds is roughly seven years. This generates an asset-liability mismatch that is partly mitigated by the available OC. All liabilities are denominated in euros, while 0.69% of the pool assets were originated in a different currency; this residual exposure is mitigated by the OC available and accounted for in the Pass-OC.

For further information on Bankia CH, please refer to the rating report available on www.dbrs.com.

DBRS has assessed the LSF related to Bankia CH as Average according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to the DBRS Commentary “Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review” and the press release “DBRS Assigns Legal and Structuring Framework Assessment to Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds Programmes”, available at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable is “Rating European Covered Bonds” (July 2016). This can be found at http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies. DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology. A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action. Other methodologies and criteria referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. This may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to DBRS’s “The Effect of Sovereign Risk on Securitisations in the Euro Area” commentary at http://www.dbrs.com/industries/bucket/id/10036/name/commentaries/.

The sources of information used for this rating include historical default performance data and cover pool stratification tables provided by Bankia that allowed DBRS to further assess the portfolio.

DBRS does not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis. DBRS was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS considers the information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating was of satisfactory quality.

DBRS does not audit the information it receives in connection with the rating process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that information in every instance.

The last rating action on this programme took place on 23 June 2016, when DBRS upgraded Bankia’s CH ratings.

The back-up responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Antonio Laudani.

Information regarding DBRS ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS historic default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Administration in a central repository, see http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU regulations only.

Initial Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar
Initial Rating Date: 24 September 2014
Initial Rating Committee Chair: Claire Mezzanotte

Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Quincy Tang, Managing Director

DBRS Ratings Limited
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Registered in England and Wales: No. 7139960

The rating methodologies and criteria used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.
-- Rating European Covered Bonds
-- Rating European Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads Range (Midpoints)
-- Critical Obligations Rating Criteria
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- DBRS Criteria: Support Assessments for Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Unified Interest Rate Model for European Securitisations
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology
-- European RMBS Insight: Spanish Addendum
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs
-- The Effect of Sovereign Risk on Securitisations in the Euro Area
-- Sovereign Ratings Provide a Benchmark for other DBRS Credit Ratings

A description of how DBRS methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.