DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings of Brignole CQ 2019-1 S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its ratings on the notes issued by Brignole CQ 2019-1 S.r.l. (the Issuer) as follows:

-- Class A Notes at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class B Notes at A (high) (sf)
-- Class C Notes at A (sf)
-- Class D Notes at A (low) (sf)
-- Class E Notes at BB (low) (sf)

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the legal maturity date in March 2036. The ratings on the Class B, Class C, and Class D Notes address the ultimate payment of interest and ultimate repayment of principal on or before the legal maturity date while junior to other outstanding classes of notes, but the timely payment of interest when they are the senior-most tranche. The rating on the Class E Notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal by the final maturity date.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the September 2020 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The transaction is a securitisation of receivables related to Italian salary and pension assignment loans as well as payment delegation loans. The loan contracts related to the receivables were granted by Creditis Servizi Finanziari S.p.A. (Creditis) to individuals residing in Italy. Creditis also acts as the servicer of the portfolio. The transaction closed in October 2019 and included a six-month revolving period, which expired in March 2020.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the September 2020 payment date, loans that were 30 to 60 days and 60 to 90 days delinquent represented 1.5% and 0.2% of the outstanding portfolio balance, respectively, while loans more than 90 days delinquent amounted to 0.2%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 1.5% of the aggregate initial and subsequent portfolios original balance, 13.1% of which has been recovered to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 8.4% and 38.3%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior obligations as well as the cash reserve provide credit enhancement to the Class A through Class D Notes, while the Class E Notes do not benefit from any credit enhancement. As of the September 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes increased to 23.8% from 20.0% at the initial rating date; credit enhancement to the Class B Notes increased to 10.6% from 8.5%; credit enhancement to the Class C Notes increased to 5.4% from 4.0%; and credit enhancement to the Class D Notes increased to 3.2% from 2.0%.

The transaction benefits from a nonamortising cash reserve, available to cover senior expenses, interest payments on the Class A through Class D Notes, and to cure any debit balances on the Class A through Class D principal deficiency subledgers, providing as such liquidity and credit support to the transaction. The reserve has a target balance of EUR 1,726,000, equal to 1.0% of the initial rated notes’ balance, and has remained at this balance since closing. The transaction additionally benefits from a dedicated prepayment reserve, currently equal to EUR 322,786, intended to mitigate potential losses upon prepayment resulting from the financing of management fees.

Citibank N.A., Milan branch (Citibank Milan) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar's private rating of Citibank Milan, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Natixis S.A., London branch (Natixis London) acts as the cap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's private rating of Natixis London is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and, where appropriate, additional stresses to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment moratoriums in the portfolio.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were updated on 10 September 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by Citibank N.A., London branch (the Calculation Agent), servicer reports provided by Creditis, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating actions on this transaction took place on 9 October 2019, when DBRS Morningstar finalised its provisional ratings of AA (low) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (sf), A (low) (sf), and BB (low) (sf) on the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E Notes, respectively.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Daniel Rakhamimov.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 8.4% and 38.3%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (low) (sf), ceteris paribus. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (low) (sf), ceteris paribus. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (low) (sf), ceteris paribus.

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (low) (sf)

Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)

Class E Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating below B (low) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Daniel Rakhamimov, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 24 September 2019

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (21 July 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364305/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (3 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366294/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (30 September 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367603/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367092/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].