DBRS Morningstar Assigns Ratings to Fastnet Securities 16 DAC

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) assigned ratings to the following classes of notes issued by Fastnet Securities 16 DAC (Fastnet 16 or the Issuer):

-- Class A1 notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class A2 notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class A3 notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class B notes at AA (high) (sf)
-- Class C notes at A (sf)
-- Class D notes at BBB (sf)
-- Class E notes at BB (high) (sf)

The ratings on the Class A1, Class A2, and Class A3 notes (together, the Class A notes) address the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the final maturity. The rating on the Class B notes addresses the timely payment of interest when most senior and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the final maturity. The ratings on the Class C, Class D, and Class E notes address the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the final maturity date.

The transaction features an amortising liquidity reserve fund (LRF) equal to 1% of the Class A outstanding balance to support the payment of senior expenses and Class A interest. Further credit enhancement is provided through the nonamortising general reserve fund (GRF), which is equal to 1% of the collateralised notes minus the LRF.

The credit enhancement is calculated as the overcollateralisation provided by the portfolio and the GRF. At closing, credit enhancement will be 11.9% for Class A, 8.8% for Class B, 3.9% for Class C, 2.1% for Class D, and 1.1% for Class E. In case of an event of default, the Class A notes are repaid pro rata and pari passu; otherwise, they are paid sequentially (i.e., Class A1 first). Additionally, the transaction documents include repurchase conditions, wherein if repurchases exceed EUR 50 million, the Class A notes are paid pro rata and pari passu; otherwise, they are paid sequentially.

As of 2 July 2021, the portfolio consisted of 25,670 loans extended to 24,009 borrowers with an aggregate outstanding balance of EUR 3.9 billion. The weighted-average (WA) seasoning of the portfolio was at 6.3 years, with a WA remaining term to maturity of 22.6 years. The DBRS Morningstar-calculated WA indexed loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of the portfolio was at 64%. The portfolio consists of only owner-occupied annuity loans, yielding a WA coupon of 2.8% and all are repaying loans. About 41.2% of the loans are granted on properties located in Dublin. As of the cut-off date, there were no loans more than 30 days past due.

The portfolio consists of 63.4% fixed-rate loans with a WA teaser period of two years. The interest rate risk arising from the fixed-rate loans is hedged by the time-subordinated Class A2 and Class A3 notes, which are subordinated to the floating-rate Class A1 notes and benefit from a low coupon rate for the first years of the life of the transaction.

The portfolio comprises both recent loan originations (66.3% originated after 2015) and loans originated during the great financial crisis era (29.5% originated between 2004 and 2009), which drives up the indexed current LTV as the properties backing pre-2010 loans were bought at the peak of the market. However, the portfolio has shown strong performance, surviving the crisis as well as the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic without the need for restructuring.

The Issuer account bank is BNP Paribas Securities Services Dublin Branch. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on the account bank and the replacement provisions included in the transaction documents, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk of such counterparty to be consistent with the ratings assigned, in accordance with DBRS Morningstar’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

In DBRS Morningstar’s cash flow results, in two scenarios, the Class B notes in a AA (high) (sf) rating scenario showed temporary interest shortfall at very high prepayment scenario in some period, which was cleared in a short period of time. DBRS Morningstar deemed these temporary interest shortfalls as de minimis and hence assigned a AA (high) (sf) rating to the Class B notes.

DBRS Morningstar based its ratings primarily on the following analytical considerations:
-- The transaction capital structure, including the form and sufficiency of available credit enhancement.
-- The credit quality of the mortgage loan portfolio and the ability of the parties to perform servicing and collection activities.
-- The DBRS Morningstar-calculated portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss (EL) assumptions on the portfolio using the European RMBS Credit Model.
-- The ability of the transaction to withstand stressed cash flow assumptions and repay the noteholders according to the terms and conditions of the notes. DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction cash flows using Intex DealMaker.
-- The consistency of the transaction’s legal structure with the DBRS Morningstar “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology and the presence of legal opinions addressing the assignment of the assets to the Issuer.
-- The relevant counterparties, as rated by DBRS Morningstar, that are appropriately in line with DBRS Morningstar’s legal criteria to mitigate the risk of counterparty default or insolvency.
-- The structural mitigants in place to avoid potential payment disruptions caused by operational risk, such as downgrade and replacement language in the transaction documents.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many structured finance transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and, where appropriate, adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar incorporated an increase in probability of default for certain borrower characteristics and conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potential high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020–22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 18 June 2021. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380281/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 14 June 2021, DBRS Morningstar updated its 5 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the coronavirus crisis on performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe one year on. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380094/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-european-mortgage-performance-one-year-on and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda” (9 July 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodologies consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include Permanent TSB plc and Morgan Stanley & Co International PLC. DBRS Morningstar was provided with loan-level data as of 2 July 2021 historical data from 2016 to Feb 2021, and repossession data.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

DBRS Morningstar was supplied with one or more third-party assessments. DBRS Morningstar applied additional cash flow stresses in its rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

These ratings concern a newly issued financial instrument. These are the first DBRS Morningstar ratings on this financial instrument.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):

-- In respect of the Class A notes, a PD of 22.1% and LGD of 57.5%, corresponding to the AAA (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD.
-- In respect of the Class B notes, a PD of 18.3% and LGD of 46.6%, corresponding to the AA (high) (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD.
-- In respect of the Class C notes, a PD of 10.3% and LGD of 37.2%, corresponding to the A (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD.
-- In respect of the Class D notes, a PD of 6.3% and LGD of 28.6%, corresponding to the BBB (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD.
-- In respect of the Class E notes, a PD of 3.4% and LGD of 21.7%, corresponding to the BB (high) (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD.

Class A1 Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)

Class A2 Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)

Class A3 Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)

Class B Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)

Class C Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)

Class D Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

Class E Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Hrishikesh Oturkar, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 21 July 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (9 July 2021) and European RMBS Credit Model v 1.0.0.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381400/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (6 April 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/376314/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (19 November 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370270/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (30 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367603/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].