Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating of Futura 2019 S.r.l.; Changes Trend to Stable from Negative

Nonperforming Loans

February 28, 2022

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its BBB (sf) rating on the Class A Notes issued by Futura 2019 S.r.l. (the Issuer) and changed the trend on the rating to Stable from Negative.

The transaction represents the issuance of Class A, Class B, and Class J Notes (collectively, the Notes). The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal. DBRS Morningstar does not rate the Class B or Class J Notes.

As of the 30 June 2019 selection date, the Notes were backed by a EUR 1.26 billion portfolio by gross book value (GBV) sold by Futura SPV S.r.l. (the Seller) and originally purchased from 53 Italian banks in 2018. The securitised portfolio was composed of secured loans representing 51.8% of the GBV, and unsecured loans, representing the remaining 48.2% of the GBV.

The receivables are serviced by Guber Banca S.p.A. (Guber or the Servicer). Centotrenta Servicing S.p.A. operates as the backup servicer in the transaction.

RATING RATIONALE
The confirmation follows a review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Transaction performance: assessment of portfolio recoveries as of 31 December 2021, focusing on: (1) a comparison between actual collections and the Servicer’s initial business plan forecast; (2) the collection performance observed over recent months, including the period following the outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19); and (3) a comparison between the current performance and DBRS Morningstar’s expectations.
-- The Servicer’s updated business plan as of October 2021, received in January 2022, and the comparison with the initial collection expectations.
-- Portfolio characteristics: loan pool composition as of December 2021 and the evolution of its core features since issuance.
-- Transaction liquidating structure: the order of priority entails a fully sequential amortisation of the notes (i.e., the Class B Notes will begin to amortise following the full repayment of the Class A Notes and the Class J Notes will amortise following the full repayment of the Class B Notes. Additionally, interest payments on the Class B Notes become subordinated to principal payments on the Class A Notes if the gross cumulative collection ratio or the present value cumulative profitability ratio are lower than 100%. These triggers have not been breached since issuance, with the actual figures as of the January 2022 interest payment date at 139.7% and 106.7%, respectively, according to the Servicer.
-- Liquidity support: the transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve providing liquidity to the structure covering potential interest shortfall on the Class A Notes and senior fees. The cash reserve target amount is equal to 4.5% of the Class A Notes principal outstanding and is currently fully funded.

TRANSACTION AND PERFORMANCE
According to the latest investor report from January 2022, the outstanding principal amounts of the Class A, Class B, and Class J Notes were EUR 95.0 million, EUR 37.0 million, and EUR 8.0 million, respectively. As of the January 2022 payment date, the balance of the Class A Notes has amortised by 39.9% since issuance and the current aggregated transaction balance is EUR 140.0 million.

As of December 2021, the transaction was performing above the Servicer’s business plan expectations. The actual cumulative gross collections equalled EUR 99.4 million (excluding EUR 1.5 million indemnities) whereas the Servicer’s initial business plan estimated cumulative gross collections of EUR 72.2 million for the same period. Therefore, as of December 2021, the transaction was overperforming by EUR 27.2 million (37.7%) compared with the initial business plan expectations.

At issuance, DBRS Morningstar estimated cumulative gross collections for the same period of EUR 45.8 million at the BBB (sf) stressed scenario. Therefore, as of December 2021, the transaction is performing above DBRS Morningstar’s initial stressed expectations.

Pursuant to the requirements set out in the receivable servicing agreement, in January 2022, the Servicer delivered an updated portfolio business plan.

The updated portfolio business plan, combined with the actual cumulative gross collections of EUR 80.0 million as of June 2021, results in a total of EUR 268.2 million, which is 0.6% lower than the total gross disposition proceeds of EUR 269.8 million estimated in the initial business plan. The servicer has been overperforming its updated business plan in the past semester. Considering that the Servicer has been performing above its initial expectations to date, expectations of collections starting from January 2022 reduced by 12.5% compared to initial business plan expectations. Excluding actual collections, the Servicer’s expected future collections from January 2022 account for EUR 173.0 million. The updated DBRS Morningstar BBB (sf) rating stress assumes a haircut of 27.1% to the Servicer’s updated portfolio business plan, considering future expected collections.

The final maturity date of the transaction is in July 2044.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure using Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that negative effects may continue in the coming months for many nonperforming loan (NPL) transactions. In particular, the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions could negatively affect recoveries from NPLs and the related real estate collaterals. The rating is based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar incorporated its expectation of a moderate medium-term decline in property prices, but gave partial credit to house price increases from 2023 onwards in non-investment-grade scenarios.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 9 December 2021. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/389454/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns-december-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

For more information on DBRS Morningstar considerations for European NPL transactions and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384146 and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360393.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include the Issuer, Guber, and Centotrenta Servicing SpA, which comprise, in addition to the information received at issuance, the investor report as of January 2022; the semiannual servicer report as of December 2021; the loan-by-loan report as of December 2021; and the updated business plan received in January 2022.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 5 March 2021, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its rating on the Class A Notes at BBB (sf) with a Negative trend.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Clarice Baiocchi.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to confirm the rating (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 5%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to BBB (low) (sf)
-- DBRS Morningstar concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Clarice Baiocchi, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Christian Aufsatz, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 16 December 2019

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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