DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on FT RMBS Prado II and FT RMBS Prado IV

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA (sf) ratings on the Class A Notes issued by FT RMBS Prado II (Prado II) and FT RMBS Prado IV (Prado IV), (together, the Issuers).

The ratings address the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal by the final legal maturity date in March 2056.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transactions and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performances, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the December 2020 payment date.
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancements to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Both Issuers are securitisations of residential mortgage loans secured by first-lien mortgages originated and serviced by Unión de Créditos Inmobiliarios S.A., E.F.C. (UCI or the Seller) in Spain. The Issuers used the proceeds of the notes (and a subordinated loan in case of Prado II) to fund the purchases of the mortgage portfolios from the Seller.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
The performance of the collateral portfolios of both transactions are within DBRS Morningstar’s expectations. As of December 2020, loans more than 90 days in arrears represented 0.5% of the outstanding performing collateral balance in Prado II and 0.3% in Prado IV. The cumulative defaults increased to 0.4% in Prado II and 0.3% in Prado IV, since the transactions closed.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted loan-by-loan analyses on the remaining pools of both Issuers and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 5.0% and 9.6%, respectively, for Prado II and to 6.8% and 20.6%, respectively, for Prado IV, following coronavirus adjustments.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT AND RESERVES
The credit enhancement to the Class A Notes in Prado II, consisting of a subordinated loan, increased to 40.7% as of December 2020, up from 36.3% at last year’s annual review.

The credit enhancement to the Class A Notes in Prado IV, consisting of subordination of the unrated Class B Notes, increased to 27.4% as of December 2020 payment date, up from 25.4% at last year’s annual review.

The transactions also benefit from the amortising reserve funds, which are available to cover senior expenses and interest of the Class A Notes. The reserve funds are currently at their target levels of EUR 11.3 million (Prado II) or 3% of the outstanding portfolio balance, and EUR 7.8 million (Prado IV) or 2.5% of the outstanding portfolio balance, both subject to a floor of 1% of the initial portfolio balances.

BNP Paribas Securities Services SA, Spanish branch acts as the account bank of the Prado II transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating of the account bank, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar 's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Banco Santander SA (Santander) acts as the account bank of the Prado IV transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of Santander at A (high), which is one notch below the DBRS Morningstar Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of AA (low), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Santander also acts as the swap counterparty for the Prado IV transaction. DBRS Morningstar’s COR of Santander is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structures in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rates for self-employed borrowers, incorporated a moderate reduction in residential property values and considered reported payment holidays in its cash flow analysis.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 2 December 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370672/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-december-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details please see https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020).
DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transactions in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transactions legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating actions.

Other methodologies referenced in these transactions are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include transaction reports from the Management Company, Santander de Titulización, SGFT, S.A., and loan-level data from the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on these transactions took place on 27 January 2020, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the ratings of the Class A Notes in both transactions.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pools based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 5.0% and 9.6%, respectively (Prado II) and 6.8% and 20.6%, respectively (Prado IV).
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, in Prado II, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would still be expected to remain at AAA (sf).

Prado II Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)

Prado IV Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Shalva Beshia, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 29 February 2016 (Prado II)
Initial Rating Date: 23 March 2017 (Prado IV)

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (19 November 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370270/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology (2 April 2020) and European RMBS Insight Model v 5.0.0.1, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359192/european-rmbs-insight-methodology.
-- European RMBS Insight: Spanish Addendum (26 August 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366107/european-rmbs-insight-spanish-addendum.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367092/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at [email protected].